The 2022-23 NBA regular season ends Sunday, but plenty still needs to be decided in the Western Conference playoff picture, especially for the Warriors.
The Warriors (42-38) currently sit sixth in the West, with a tentative hold on the final playoff spot, but they could fall as far as ninth, which would mean a play-in tournament berth.
The Los Angeles Clippers (No. 5 at 42-38), Los Angeles Lakers (No. 7 at 41-39), New Orleans Pelicans (No. 8 at 41-39) and Minnesota Timberwolves (No. 9 at 40-40) also are all in the mix, with each team having two games to play. The Oklahoma City Thunder (No. 10 at 38-42), Dallas Mavericks (No. 11 at 38-42) and Utah Jazz (No. 12 at 36-43) are mathematically alive but face long odds to move up the standings.
Here are the Warriors' playoff scenarios, as outlined by 95.7 The Game's John Dickinson, entering Thursday's NBA action.
How the Warriors can avoid the play-in tournament
After being eliminated in the 2021 play-in tournament, the Warriors should be eager to avoid it altogether. That year, they were the No. 8 seed before losing to the No. 7 Lakers and then the No. 9 Memphis Grizzlies, ending the season.
The good news this year is that, as of Thursday, the Warriors control their own destiny. If they win their final two regular-season games -- Friday against the Kings and Sunday against the Trail Blazers, both on the road -- they will be guaranteed a top-six seed and an accompanying playoff berth.
Here are all the ways the Warriors can avoid the play-in tournament, per Dickinson:
- Warriors grab the No. 5 seed if ...
- They go 2-0 AND the Clippers lose once
- Warriors grab the No. 6 seed if ...
- They go 2-0 AND the Clippers go 2-0
- They go 1-1 AND the Clippers go 1-1 AND the Pelicans go 2-0 AND the Lakers go 1-1 or 0-2
- They go 1-1 AND the Clippers go 1-1 or 2-0, AND the Pelicans go 1-1 or 0-2, AND the Lakers go 1-1 or 0-2
Got all that?
How the Warriors would drop to the play-in tournament
The Warriors could be stuck in the play-in tournament in a few different scenarios, even if they go 1-1 in their remaining regular-season games.
Here's how it could play out, per Dickinson:
- Warriors grab the No. 7 seed (home play-in game) if ...
- They go 1-1 AND the Clippers go 1-1 or 2-0, AND the Pelicans go 1-1 or 0-2, AND the Lakers go 2-0
- They go 1-1 AND the Clippers go 2-0 AND the Pelicans go 2-0 AND the Lakers go 1-1 or 0-2
- Warriors grab the No. 8 seed (road play-in game) if ...
- The Warriors go 1-1 AND the Clippers, Pelicans and Lakers all go 2-0
- They go 1-1 AND the Clippers go 1-1 AND the Pelicans and Lakers go 2-0
The Warriors also can drop to the No. 9 seed, which would force them to win two play-in games just to make the playoffs. That seed is only possible if the Warriors lose both of their final two regular-season games.
- Warriors grab the No. 9 seed if ...
- They go 0-2 AND the Timberwolves go 2-0 AND the Pelicans beat the New York Knicks, AND the Lakers go 1-1 or 2-0
What are the teams' remaining schedules?
- Clippers: vs. Trail Blazers (Saturday), at Suns (Sunday)
- Warriors: at Kings (Friday), at Trail Blazers (Sunday)
- Lakers: vs. Suns (Friday), vs. Jazz (Sunday)
- Pelicans: vs. Knicks (Friday), at Timberwolves (Sunday)
- Timberwolves: at Spurs (Saturday), vs. Pelicans (Sunday)
What are the Warriors' playoff tiebreakers?
With all five teams so close, tiebreakers could come into play -- and they don't favor Golden State. Here are all the scenarios for the Warriors, per Dickinson:
- Warriors would lose a two-way tiebreaker to the Clippers, Lakers and Pelicans
- Three-way with Warriors/Clippers/Pelicans goes: Pelicans, Warriors, Clippers
- Three-way with Warriors/Clippers/Lakers goes: Clippers, Lakers, Warriors
- Three-way with Warriors/Lakers/Pelicans goes: Lakers, Pelicans, Warriors
- Four-way with Warriors/Clippers/Lakers/Pelicans goes: Pelicans, Clippers, Lakers, Warriors
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