Only four players have won the AP NFL Most Valuable Player award in back-to-back years.
In this most unpredictable of seasons, few players seen as frontrunners to win MVP have enjoyed the kind of sustained dominance to solidify their case.
The apparent lack of an obvious standout at the quarterback position has led to talk a running back or wide receiver could take home the honor, ending the monopoly enjoyed by signal-callers over the last eight seasons.
Yet it is the reigning MVP Aaron Rodgers who has over the last few weeks emerged as the favorite to make history by joining Jim Brown, Joe Montana, Brett Favre and Peyton Manning on a select list.
Rodgers being in such a position looked unlikely for much of an inconsistent season, however, since returning in Week 10 after his coronavirus enforced absence, he has regularly produced vintage performances to propel the Packers to an 11-3 record that would right now net them the top seed in the NFC.
He led the NFL with a passer rating of 117.1 between Weeks 10 and 15. During that span he threw 13 touchdowns and just one interception, with Jimmy Garoppolo of the San Francisco 49ers the only quarterback to average more yards per attempt (8.81) than Rodgers (8.70) in that time.
And his surge during the second half of the season has seen Rodgers establish himself as the most efficient quarterback in the NFL by several measures.
Rodgers leads the NFL in Ben Baldwin's Expected Points Added & Completion Percentage Over Expectation composite metric, per rbsdm.com. He is first in both EPA per play and CPOE, completing 71.2 per cent of passes with an expected completion percentage of 65.4.
He also leads the way in Football Outsiders' Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA), which measures per play value, and ESPN's QBR. Rodgers is second only to Tom Brady in Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement (DYAR), a gauge of total value.
In other words, the advanced numbers indicate Rodgers is both the most efficient and the most valuable quarterback in the league and he can cement that status in front of a primetime audience against a playoff calibre opponent when the Packers face the Cleveland Browns on Christmas Day.
Often uneven play from the Browns' offense along with injuries and a recent COVID-19 outbreak have prevented Cleveland from taking command of an extremely winnable AFC North.
At 7-7 following a home defeat to the Las Vegas Raiders, the Browns find themselves at the bottom of the division and have just a 15 percent chance to make the playoffs, according to FiveThirtyEight.
Yet in Defensive Player of the Year contender Myles Garrett, who—per Pro Football Reference—entered Week 16 tied with the Niners' Nick Bosa for the league lead in quarterback pressures with 45, the Browns have a blue-chip pass rusher who can decimate the Packers' offensive gameplan.
Rodgers and the Packers also figure to be tested by a talented young Browns secondary. However, if he can come through that challenge by producing another stellar performance in primetime to push Green Bay closer to the one seed, then he should be a near-lock to end a controversial season with a slice of history.
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December 25, 2021 at 07:35AM
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Aaron Rodgers Could Effectively Seal The MVP Award In Week 16 - Forbes
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