There are three races remaining in the 2021 Formula 1 season, and the world championship is still up for grabs between Max Verstappen and Lewis Hamilton.
Four-time reigning and seven-time Formula 1 world champion Lewis Hamilton turned a 21-point deficit into a 14-point deficit to Max Verstappen by overcoming multiple grid penalties and winning Sunday’s Sao Paulo Grand Prix at Autodromo Jose Carlos Pace.
After initially taking the pole position for the sprint qualifying race, Hamilton was forced to start from 20th (last) due to a DRS technical infringement.
He made up 15 positions in this 24-lap race around the 15-turn, 2.677-mile (4.308-kilometer) road course in Sao Paulo, Brazil to finish in fifth place, but he would start the 71-lap Grand Prix in 10th as a result of a separate five-place grid penalty which he knew was headed his way entering the weekend as a result of an engine change.
He still went from 10th to first to secure his sixth win of the season. Verstappen finished in second place.
So with three races remaining, the Red Bull driver holds a 332.5 to 318.5 lead over the Mercedes driver in the world championship standings.
What is the easiest way for each driver to secure the 2021 world title?
There is a maximum of 78 points left on the table for each driver, with 26 on offer in each race: 25 for winning and one for running the fastest lap.
While Hamilton can still tie Verstappen in wins (currently nine to six in favor of Verstappen) and thus still technically secure the tiebreaker, Verstappen has effectively clinched the tiebreaker already.
The reason why is because the only way that Hamilton can possibly secure it is by winning out, in which case he wouldn’t need the tiebreaker.
If Hamilton wins out, which is his simplest way to secure the title without worrying about what Verstappen does, he would, at worst, score 75 points (three wins, no fastest laps). Verstappen would, at best, score 57 (three runner-up finishes, three fastest laps).
This scenario would give Hamilton a four-point championship win.
So Hamilton effectively needs to outscore Verstappen by 15 points, not 14, to win the title. With that in mind, Verstappen can clinch the title and not worry about where Hamilton finishes as long as he scores 64 points.
But considering the fact that he can only possibly reach 64 points by winning at least once, he really doesn’t need that many to win it without worrying about where Hamilton finishes, as any single victory would reduce the maximum potential point total that Hamilton can score.
Verstappen can clinch the title with finishes of first (25 points), second (18 points) and third (15 points) place.
This would give him 58 points, and even if Hamilton were to finish in second place with the fastest lap (19 points) in the race won by Verstappen and win the other two races with the fastest laps in each (26×2=52 points), he would still fall one point shy, as this would only narrow the 14-point gap to one point.
Let’s not ignore the fact, however, that there are many other ways by which either driver can still clinch the championship.
These are simply the easiest clinching scenarios for each driver in which they control their own destiny and wouldn’t have to worry about where the other one finishes.
The 20th of 22 races on the 2021 schedule, the Qatar Grand Prix, is set to be broadcast live on ESPN from Losail International Circuit beginning at 9:00 a.m. ET this Sunday, November 21. Start your free trial of FuboTV today!
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November 15, 2021 at 08:00PM
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Formula 1: The easiest way to seal the 2021 world championship - Beyond the Flag
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