Though it hasn’t been proven scientifically yet, two Quebec professors suspect the province’s stable numbers are due in large part to its stricter lockdown measures
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OTTAWA – As Ontario enters a third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, neighbouring Quebec may very well avoid one altogether thanks to its months-long curfew.
“Quebec is resisting the variants, Quebec is resisting against the third wave. That’s not the case elsewhere in the world… Even in Canada, there has been a strong increase of cases in British-Columbia, Alberta and in Ontario, where they even declared a third wave,” Quebec Premier François Legault said as he began a press conference Tuesday.
“Things are going well. This means our measures are working, but, but, but…” he continued, “the war is not over.”
As the COVID-19 pandemic enters its second year and the end of its second wave in Canada, many provinces are grappling with the growing possibility of a third wave as more contagious variants of the virus spread throughout the population.
That’s notably the case in Ontario, where the province’s chief medical officer of health announced last week that the third wave had already begun as daily case counts have steadily increased over the 1,600 mark (Tuesday was an exception with a single-day drop to 1,546 new cases).
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Of particular concern is the fact that virus variants, which have proven to be much more contagious and possibly more deadly than the original strain, now account for more than half of the province’s new cases.
But in Quebec, which was heavily criticized for its initial pandemic response last spring as the virus raced like wildfire through long-term care homes, daily new cases have plateaued around 700, with hospitalizations and deaths also largely unchanging from one day to the next.
Now, experts say there is a chance a third wave never materializes in la belle province, even despite the growing number of variant cases.
“We’re not completely safe from a third wave, but if we can convince Quebecers to continue to respect sanitary measures for another few weeks, we very well may avoid it. We’re in a race between the virus variants and vaccines,” says Marie-France Raynault, professor emeritus of public health at the Université de Montréal.
Though it hasn’t been proven scientifically yet, both Reynault and Benoît Barbeau, associate professor of biology at Université du Québec à Montréal (UQAM), suspect Quebec’s stable numbers are due in large part to its stricter lockdown measures.
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The province was the only one in the country to impose an 8 p.m. curfew back in December. The restriction has lasted for months, with the provincial government only recently extending it to 9:30 p.m. as part of a series of measures to gradually lift restrictions.
“Quebec’s COVID-19 measures were more aggressive than those in Ontario and many other provinces, which allowed it to better control the virus and its variants’ spread from the start,” Barbeau said.
“Is Quebec facing the calm before the storm? We may only be delaying our third wave compared to Ontario,” he added.
Both experts suggest another reason Quebec may have had the upper hand on Ontario this spring is the fact the province has seen fewer cases of COVID-19 variants, which are far more contagious. As of Tuesday, they accounted for just over 30 per cent of Quebec’s total new cases, compared to roughly 55 per cent in Ontario. The vast majority are the B.1.1.7 variant first identified in the United Kingdom.
“There very well may be an element of chance in the arrival of the variants in Ontario compared to Quebec, because Toronto likely receives more inbound flights from the U.K. than Montreal, for example,” Barbeau said.
But after the variants arrived in each province, how those cases were handled was what mattered the most. And that’s where Quebec had the upper hand on many of its neighbouring provinces, Barbeau and Raynault say.
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“The protocols when it comes to detecting and addressing variant cases in Quebec are stricter than in Ontario,” Raynault said. “A difference of say five days before a variant is diagnosed is a big difference.”
“But even if the variants may have arrived earlier in Ontario, I continue to think that Quebec’s curfew had a significant impact,” she added.
Like Legault, both experts say it’s too soon to proclaim that Quebec has successfully dodged a third wave, saying that it may only be delayed compared to other provinces.
But every day that wave is pushed back, more and more vulnerable Quebecers are vaccinated, meaning it likely will be much less severe or even deadly than the previous two.
The province vaccinated 26,040 people on Monday and crossed the 1,000,000-dose threshold Tuesday afternoon.
“Quebec is in a favourable position right now,” Barbeau said. “The province is currently in a race against the clock, but as vaccinations accelerate, it’s possible that a third wave wouldn’t lead to a catastrophic situation.”
• Email: cnardi@postmedia.com | Twitter: ChrisGNardi
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