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Saturday, February 15, 2020

Killer virus: How the coronavirus affects us and how to avoid it - Independent.ie

Ben Kavanagh, a teacher from Kildare, was relieved to be finally leaving quarantine this week after his evacuation from the city at the epicentre of the coronavirus outbreak.

he teacher was living and working in the city of Wuhan, when he became aware of the dramatic spread of the virus. Patients were coming down with the illness with flu-like symptoms and an alarming number were dying.

The virus spread from a local seafood market to infect tens of thousands, prompting an emergency that has shut down businesses and grounded flights. The death toll was heading towards 1,500, with over 60,000 infections by Thursday of this week.

As he prepared to leave quarantine in the UK after being evacuated from China, Kavanagh told Review of his sense of isolation as he lived day-to-day in an apartment in Wuhan. He told how he only ventured out in a mask to get food and water.

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Quarantine: Kildare man Ben Kavanagh

Quarantine: Kildare man Ben Kavanagh

"Wuhan is a colossal city and to see it empty like a ghost town was surreal. When we first heard of the coronavirus on December 31, people treated it as a joke, but by January 22 the whole city was in lockdown," he says.

Apart from the tragic death toll, the spread of the virus has had ripple effects across the world, affecting the global economy, disrupting transport, damaging tourism and causing sporting events to be cancelled. An Post has cancelled deliveries to China, while cruise ship passengers and other holidaymakers have cancelled holidays to Asia. The outbreak poses a "very grave threat for the rest of the world" and should be viewed as "public enemy number one", the head of the World Health Organisation warned this week in a message that some might have seen as apocalyptic.

WHO director-general Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus urged countries to step up measures to detect and contain the virus, fearing that it could "create havoc".

"To be honest, a virus is more powerful in creating political, economic and social upheaval than any terrorist attack," he said.

So how can we protect ourselves from the spread of the virus known as Covid-19, or is that possible at all?

One virologist in the UK, Professor John Oxford, this week went so far as to warn people to avoid kissing and hugging.

The World Health Organisation has issued guidelines (see panel) for members of the public. The WHO recommends drastic action such a "social distancing", or maintaining at least one metre between yourself and other people, particularly those who are coughing, sneezing and have a fever.

Some of the advice is particularly relevant to China, such as taking hygiene measures when visiting live animal markets. Experts in the field believe that the coronavirus originally jumped from bats to humans after passing through an intermediate carrier.

The UCD virologist Dr Cillian De Gascun chairs the Expert Advisory Group given the task of advising the HSE and National Public Health Emergency Team on the virus. Dr De Gascun told Review that the early indications are that the virus transmits quickly. He says the mortality rate for those infected with the virus is 2-3pc, but that may turn out to be an overestimate. It is still extremely high compared to the fatality rate from flu, which is 0.1pc.

Many of the precautionary measures may have focused on China in recent weeks, but the case of the so-called "super spreader", English businessman Steve Walsh, shows how the virus can have a dramatic effect across a wide area.

After contracting the virus in Singapore, Walsh travelled to a French ski chalet and is believed to have infected at least nine other people before flying on from Geneva to London.

Dr De Gascun says: "Good hand hygiene is particularly important as a preventive measure. Masks are not guaranteed to stop the virus spreading, but they do stop people touching their face, and infecting themselves."

Dr Graham Fry of the Tropical Medicine Bureau in Dublin says: "Unless it is a proper filter mask, the standard masks that you see people wearing are of very little value in protecting you from someone else spreading the virus. If you use a mask it should be sealed and tight to the face."

The Department of Foreign Affairs is advising Irish citizens to avoid travel to China and to leave the country if their presence is not essential. But should travellers fly to other Asian countries on holiday or for business?

Dr Fry is advising travellers to avoid travel to certain Asian countries if it is not essential. Apart from China, the countries with the highest number of infections are Japan, Singapore, Thailand, South Korea and Malaysia.

"The risk of infection is still low, but there is a risk of being quarantined if someone else on your plane gets it," says Dr Fry.

'Stay away from crowds'

"At this point, the whole Asian area is a risk, because people who present with any symptoms whatsoever are potentially going to be quarantined.

"We would be advising people travelling to wash their hands, look after personal hygiene, and stay away from crowded places," says Dr Fry. "Don't go to the cinema or get on a crowded bus with 25 people."

With the virus present in small numbers in Europe, travellers might take precautions to avoid infections when flying. Citing a study in the journal Clinical Infectious Diseases, an article in National Geographic warns that passengers in aisle seats have a greater likelihood of coming into contact with communicable viruses due to the proximity of other passengers.

Passengers are advised to stick to a window seat, and to avoid moving around the plane if at all possible. Passengers are also warned that the infectious zones on aircraft include tray tables, air vents, seatbelt buckles and seatback pockets.

As well as avoiding the aisle seat, travellers are advised to use disinfectant wipes and hand sanitisers when they travel.

Dr Cillian De Gascun says there has not yet been a case of a planeload of passengers with a high number of coronavirus infections. So far, there has been more concern about the plight of passengers and crew on board two cruise ships .

The Department of Foreign Affairs has offered consular assistance to an Irish couple on board the Diamond Princess, which is quarantined off the coast of Japan.

A total of 44 more cases of coronavirus were confirmed on the ship on Thursday bringing the total to 219 in total on board.

A second cruise ship that had been stranded at sea with over 2,000 people aboard finally docked in Cambodia on Thursday.

Pat Dawson of the Irish Travel Agents Association said the spread of the virus was bound to have an effect on cruise ship bookings and holidays in popular Asian destinations such as Thailand and Malaysia. The New York Times reported this week that bookings on cruises were down 10-15pc.

In Ireland, GP surgeries and hospitals have put in place emergency plans to deal with suspected infections. By the middle of this week, most GPs had received Personal Protection packs with masks and goggles at their surgeries to prepare for a suspected outbreak.

Dr Tony Cox, medical director of the Irish College of General Practitioners, said this was the first time these packs had been distributed since the SARs outbreak of 2003.

"Patients should not be alarmed as it is still more likely that anyone with flu-like symptoms will have the flu," Dr Cox says.

He adds that patients who think they have symptoms should not try to attend a GP surgery. They are advised to contact the surgery or a local emergency department to inform them about their symptoms.

Patients will be taken to a local hospital by ambulance. The HSE says it has isolation units at all of its sites, in preparation for any potential outbreak. While the health effects of the virus are the most obvious concern, ultimately the economic effect on Ireland could be more profound.

Trade between Ireland and China has boomed in recent years, and last year the Asian country took €8bn in Irish exports.

John Whelan, managing partner of international trade consultancy Linkage Partnership told RTÉ this week: "When the Chinese market starts to wobble under the current virus, it has quite severe impacts on a number of sectors."

Among our leading exporters to China are dairy and pork producers.

According to Whelan, the curtailing of flights is having an impact on Irish seafood exporters who use airfreight to get fresh fish to the Chinese markets.

In the middle of the week there were hopes that the spread of the virus might be peaking, but later on a change to the way the statistics were calculated led to a spike in numbers.

The head of the World Health Organisation's emergency programme, Irishman Michael Ryan, warned: "It's way too early to predict it this is the beginning, middle or end of the epidemic."

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Killer virus: How the coronavirus affects us and how to avoid it - Independent.ie
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