Mitch McConnell has laid a trap for Democrats. Here’s how they can avoid it. - The Washington Post

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It’s hard to overstate how momentous a victory it would represent if Democrats can pull off their two-part infrastructure and jobs package, one bill done with Republicans, the other by Democrats alone. It would allow President Biden to proclaim he restored bipartisanship, while showcasing the Democratic Party acting ambitiously on its own as a unified majority party.

That’s why Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) is trying to bait Democrats into squandering this opportunity. McConnell is tacitly threatening to tank the bipartisan half of the deal unless Democrats drop their strategy of linking the fate of the two bills together.

In an interview with me, a key player in all this — Rep. John Yarmuth (D-Ky.), the chair of the House Budget Committee — suggested several reasons why McConnell’s trap is unlikely to work. And he laid out new details about the way forward.

House Democrats plan to wait until the Senate sends over both a bipartisan bill and a reconciliation package before passing either. This is meant to ensure that the left supports the bipartisan bill and moderates support the reconciliation one.

To blow this up, McConnell is pressuring Biden to get Democratic leaders to drop this linkage, insisting that they agree to pass the bipartisan bill without making it conditional on the Senate passing the reconciliation one.

McConnell’s trap

The trick is to spook Democratic moderates into fearing the bipartisan deal — which they want to tout in swing districts — will collapse, getting them to call on their party to drop that condition, angering the left. As Politico reports, the idea is to provoke Democratic “infighting.”

Unfortunately, some moderates have taken the bait, calling for passage of the bipartisan deal regardless of whether a reconciliation one is complete.

But Yarmuth, who exercises much influence as budget chair, was blunt in explaining why Democrats cannot allow this.

“That’s not gonna happen,” Yarmuth told me, referring to moderates’ demands for a bipartisan bill to advance alone, though he said they’re free to express that preference.

Underscoring the point, Yarmuth said there’s “widespread skepticism” within the Democratic caucus that if a bipartisan bill passes first, the reconciliation measure won’t happen.

Importantly, while it’s been widely noted that progressive members fear this, Yarmuth said this fear goes well beyond progressives. “Most of the caucus doesn’t want to see that happen,” he told me.

The path forward is tortuous. The next step is for the Senate Budget Committee to produce an overall framework and general top-line number for its reconciliation bill. Yarmouth said Democrats expect this next week.

In hopes of minimizing intraparty discord, Yarmuth said, the Senate and House budget committees are in talks about what framework and top-line number could win 50 Senate Democrats and virtually all House Democrats, which will be needed for passage.

In this scenario, the Senate Budget Committee will produce its framework first. As E.J. Dionne reports, this will be negotiated to get the support of all 50 Senate Democrats — from Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) to Joe Manchin III (D-W.Va.).

House Democrats will then determine if this general framework can pass the House. If so, the details will get filled in. If not, a new framework will get negotiated, Yarmuth told me.

The idea is that this locks the left and centrist wings into a framework of mutual need. The left needs moderates to pass the reconciliation bill. The moderates need the left to pass the bipartisan one.

Each has an interest in seeing the other get its way. As David Dayen explains, this is why progressives in Congress quietly recognize an opportunity to exert more influence than usual.

A lot can go wrong

A million things could wreck this scheme. Ten GOP senators may not support the bipartisan bill, requiring Democrats to try to pass everything by reconciliation. Moderates like Manchin could then say an attempt at bipartisanship was made, giving them cover to agree to a big Democrats-only reconciliation bill.

In some ways, that could produce a better outcome than the two-track solution. It might lead to more and better-designed spending on bricks-and-mortar infrastructure. But moderates could still use their influence to pare down “human” infrastructure spending.

Or it’s possible that despite assurances from Democratic leaders, moderates do get their way, and the bipartisan bill passes before the reconciliation one is locked in.

But that would be a serious mistake. If Democrats can remain united throughout and this process produces a suitably ambitious reconciliation package, the possibilities are big and tantalizing.

Rise together, fall together

Whatever you think of bipartisanship as an end in itself, Biden campaigned on his ability to restore it, and he (and moderates in Congress) could argue they made Washington work again in a manner independents seem to want.

Meanwhile, imagine if Democrats do deliver on human infrastructure and climate — with a new standard for electricity to be generated by renewable sources coupled with large investments in them. That would show them uniting their factions to address the twin challenges of the moment — the massive economic inequalities laid bare by the pandemic and the long-term climate crisis — as a true governing majority.

That could prove politically very powerful indeed. Which is exactly why McConnell is trying scuttle the whole scheme.

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Mitch McConnell has laid a trap for Democrats. Here’s how they can avoid it. - The Washington Post
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