The Original Crusoe's Announces Closure — But Hopes to Avoid it - Riverfront Times

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COURTESY OF THE ORIGINAL CRUSOE'S

The Original Crusoe's has been a fixture in Dutchtown for 44 years.

Stevie Limmer LaChance has never known a world without the Original Crusoe's (3152 Osceola Street), the old-school south St. Louis bar and grill her father first opened in 1979. Her parents met there, and — like many kids of restaurant owners — she and her brother then grew up there.

About 10 years ago, as her father, Steve Limmer, dealt with Parkinson's, LaChance took over the business, and she and her husband Elliot have kept it going through the COVID-19 pandemic and what have been some very tough years in the restaurant business.

But yesterday, LaChance felt like she'd had enough. She wrote on Facebook that she would be closing the place.

"Unfortunately, we are going to have to close our restaurant of 44 years," she wrote, noting that she'd grown up in the place. "We were hoping for the same for our children, but times have changed and it is a lot harder than it was before."

The post went viral. LaChance found herself with more than 1,000 likes, 684 shares and 366 comments, many from people who loved the place, who remembered working for her parents or who developed fond memories of family celebrations there or just eating Crusoe's signature fried chicken.

And some weren't willing to let the beloved Dutchtown favorite go. A friend put up a GoFundMe, and people kicked in more than $1,000. Others reached out directly.

It was, to put it mildly, a roller coaster of a day.

"It's a little emotional," LaChance admits. "I knew I cared about this place, but to see other people cared too..."

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COURTESY OF STEVIE LIMMER LACHANCE

Stevie Limmer's dad, Steve Limmer, opened the Original Crusoe's and met Stevie's mom there.

It has been a tough, tough summer. A lengthy power outage left Crusoe's with weeks' worth of thawed food that had to be thrown out. Later, problems with a hood not working in the kitchen, despite repairman after repairman looking at the problem, forced the place to close for another week.

"We had to keep turning people away," LaChance says. "It was 100 degrees and the thing that sucks hot air out of the kitchen wasn't working. I couldn't put my staff through that." After losing all those days open, and business that never really bounced back after COVID, she thought she saw the writing on the wall. She hated owing money to people like her electrician.

"I was getting to the point where I couldn't pay people, and I knew these were small businesses like me," she says. "We were getting into a hole. I didn't know how to get out of it without selling."

But now she finds herself hoping that she won't have to. She says she's not asking people to donate money (though she's grateful for the GoFundMe). She just wants the place to be bustling again.

"I just want people to come and eat," she says. "I want people to come out and support my business. I want to have a reason for my husband and I to work all these hours with two little kids."

Yesterday's outpouring of support has her contemplating a different ending. "It makes me want to fight for it," she says.

And so Crusoe's will be open tonight, and will be open this weekend, and they'll be serving that fried chicken to the families who come to the restaurant for a homestyle dinner and good company. The regulars will be there — but she's hoping to see faces she hasn't seen in a long time, too.

She's hoping for a different ending.

"I want people to know that I'm willing to put the effort into it," LaChance says. "I want to be there. But I need their business."

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Why Investors are Betting Against History and How We Can Avoid It - ETF Trends

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Recent broad based equity market gains have been driven by a limited number of companies, and many investors theorize that the recent outperformance of these names will continue. Market history suggests that valuations eventually matter as the market laggers become the leaders. Reversion to the mean is an extraordinarily strong force in the markets as are the behavioral mistakes, such as recency bias, that can lead to investors allocating money into very rich valuations.

At the end of July 2023, the Russell 1000 Growth Index was trading at a forward price-to-earnings (PE) multiple of 29x, which is 25% above its average forward PE during the prior ten years. Over the preceding three months, the Index’s price appreciated 15% while consensus earnings estimates declined almost 2% according to Bloomberg. The net effect of these changes has created an Index with expensive current valuations and diminishing future prospects.

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To focus a little more on how rich some of the areas of the equity market are currently, the following chart analyzes the monthly forward PE for the S&P 500 Index, the Russell 1000 Growth Index, the Russell 1000 Value Index, the Russell Midcap Value Index, and the S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats Index over the past ten years. As you can see, the value and dividend indices are trading at much more attractive valuations than the S&P 500 Index and the Russell 1000 Growth Index. In fact, the Russell 1000 Growth Index is trading more than one standard deviation above its own 10-year median PE.

We have seen these kinds of performance chasing and speculative environments before, and while the timing of these previous runs may differ, the result has always been the same. History and experience teach us that paying up to invest in areas that have already had a strong run, especially those that are trading at speculative levels, can be hurtful to financial goals.

A similar measure of the narrowness of the recent market gains can be seen in the weighting of the top ten stocks in the S&P 500 Index, which does increase to extreme levels from time to time. The most recent measure has remained elevated for longer than usual, but that doesn’t suggest their relative weightings (e.g., market capitalizations relative to the other constituents) will not decline in the coming months. To believe otherwise would be betting against history rather than learning from it.

We do not think that the recent stock market winners necessarily need to see a price crash, though the companies with more stretched valuations are at an increased risk. History shows repeatedly that these types of market trends do not last.

Unfortunately, human beings are hardwired to make behavioral errors that can compound these issues. Two of the most important behavioral errors that investors often make are recency bias and herd behavior.

Recency bias is the tendency to give more weight to recent events or experiences when making decisions. Investors affected by recency bias may overweight current market trends or short-term performance and downplay historical data or longer-term relationships.

Herd behavior, or chasing trends, is another impactful tendency. As social beings, we are predisposed to seek the comfort of company. If we see continued market actions in one direction or another, we tend to seek the comforts of joining the market herd. This market activity can eventually push stock prices significantly away from fair value. All trends must eventually come to an end as divergences from fair value cannot last forever. Markets will eventually identify these differences between price and value and correct them accordingly.

It is the deviation from fair value that concerns us most today. With the Russell 1000 Growth Index trading at a 25% premium to its 10-year average, today’s valuations look stretched. The situation may be even more extreme than the premium suggests given that interest rates were significantly lower over the previous ten years than they are today. As a result, borrowing costs are much higher than they have been, which could pinch future earnings. In addition, the discount factor to arrive at the present value of future earnings is also greater today than even a year ago. Therefore, we think that stock prices exhibiting these types of valuations are far more likely to see increased headwinds going forward.

Conversely, and as a result of this narrow market rally, we are finding a bounty of opportunities in areas that have lagged. Rather than betting against history, we have been increasingly allocating to the value style as well as dividend payers that have lagged this year’s market rally. All it takes is a little bit of patience and fortitude to reap what history suggests could be excellent investment opportunities going forward.

---

DISCLOSURES

Any forecasts, figures, opinions or investment techniques and strategies explained are Stringer Asset Management, LLC’s as of the date of publication. They are considered to be accurate at the time of writing, but no warranty of accuracy is given and no liability in respect to error or omission is accepted. They are subject to change without reference or notification. The views contained herein are not to be taken as advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any investment and the material should not be relied upon as containing sufficient information to support an investment decision. It should be noted that the value of investments and the income from them may fluctuate in accordance with market conditions and taxation agreements and investors may not get back the full amount invested.

Past performance and yield may not be a reliable guide to future performance. Current performance may be higher or lower than the performance quoted.

The securities identified and described may not represent all of the securities purchased, sold or recommended for client accounts. The reader should not assume that an investment in the securities identified was or will be profitable.

Data is provided by various sources and prepared by Stringer Asset Management, LLC and has not been verified or audited by an independent accountant.

Index Definitions:

S&P 500 Index – This Index is a capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks. The Index is designed to measure performance of a broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries.

Russell 1000 Growth Index – This Index measures the performance of the large cap growth segment of the U.S. equity universe. It includes those Russell 1000 companies with relatively higher price-to-book ratios, higher I/B/E/S forecast medium term growth and higher sales per share historical growth. The Index is constructed to provide a comprehensive and unbiased barometer for the large-cap growth segment. The Index is completely reconstituted annually to ensure new and growing equities are included and that the represented companies continue to reflect growth characteristics.

Russell 1000 Value Index – This Index measures the performance of the large cap value segment of the U.S. equity universe. It includes those Russell 1000 companies with relatively lower price-to-book ratios, lower I/B/E/S forecast medium term growth and lower sales per share historical growth. The Index is constructed to provide a comprehensive and unbiased barometer for the large-cap value segment. The Index is completely reconstituted annually to ensure new and growing equities are included and that the represented companies continue to reflect value characteristics.

Russell Midcap Value Index – This Index measures the performance of the midcap value segment of the U.S. equity universe. It includes those Russell Midcap Index companies with relatively lower price-to-book ratios, lower I/B/E/S forecast medium term growth and lower sales per share historical growth. The Index is constructed to provide a comprehensive and unbiased barometer of the mid-cap value market. The Index is completely reconstituted annually to ensure larger stocks do not distort the performance and characteristics of the true midcap value market.

S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats Index – This Index tracks companies within the S&P 500 Index that have a record of raising their dividends for at least 25 consecutive years. Each company is equally weighted within the Index. S&P will remove companies from the Index when they fail to increase dividend payments from the previous year. The Index’s universe includes stocks with a float-adjusted market capitalization of at least $3 billion and an average daily trading volume of at least $5 million, in addition to consistently increasing dividend payments. The index requires a minimum of 40 companies.

For more news, information, and analysis, visit the ETF Strategist Channel.

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How much slower is cross-chaining and how can I avoid it? - Global Cycling Network

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The term ‘cross-chaining’ describes those gears where your chain is stretched between the inside and outside cogs. cross-chaining comes in two flavours. First, there’s when you put the bike in the small, inner chainring at the front, and the small, outer cog at the back. Secondly, there’s when you ride in the big, outer chainring at the front and the big, inner cog at the back.

If you find yourself in these gears on a group ride, it’s only a matter of time before your riding buddies call you out on it, because riding in either of these combinations leads to increased friction, reduced efficiency, and increased wear on your components.Or so we’ve always been told.

Cycling wisdom has told us that cross-chaining is a massive waste of energy. In reality though, cross-chaining is nowhere near as inefficient as you might think. Research shows that cross-chaining has a small impact on drivetrain efficiency, although it will accelerate drivetrain wear.

Drivetrain efficiency

In any drivetrain, there’ll always be a certain amount of energy lost to friction, but the straighter a drivetrain can be, the lower this energy loss will be. With a conventional chain-driven drivetrain, the most efficient it can possibly be is about 97%. Singlespeed and fixed gear bikes are the most efficient bikes out there, because their chains are always completely straight.

On geared bikes, the chain moves from side to side as it transfers through the sprockets on the cassette and the chainrings on the chainset. As it moves through the gears, the angle at which the chain is held increases and decreases, and the efficiency in the system changes. This is because the plates on the chain will rub on the teeth as they engage and disengage, creating extra friction.

In 2019, VeloNews and Ceramic Speed did some lab tests on this. They tested the efficiency loss of a drivetrain when cross-chaining in either direction, both ‘big/big’ and ‘small/small’, when riding at 250W. They used a standard 53/39 tooth chainset and an 11/34 tooth cassette.

First of all, they measured the efficiency when the bike was cross-chaining across the smallest chainring and the smallest sprocket. In this gear, there was an efficiency loss of 15W from that 250W that was being put through the pedals.

By comparison, when riding in the equivalent gear, which is the 53 tooth chainring at the front and the 15 tooth sprocket at the back, there was an efficiency loss of 10W, despite the fact that the chain is almost perfectly straight in that gear.

So the efficiency loss from cross-chaining in the smallest cog at the front and the smallest cog at the back is only 5W. That’s about the same as the difference between aero socks vs normal cycling socks, or the difference between having a clean or a dirty chain. Not much at all.

Then, they measured the efficiency of cross-chaining in the other direction, in the biggest chainring at the front and the biggest sprocket at the back. Remarkably, in this gear, the efficiency loss was just 10W, which is only 1W more than in the equivalent, straighter gear of 39/25. How can this be? It’s possible that the efficiency gains from riding in the larger cogs cancelled out the efficiency losses from cross-chaining.

For our discussion of cross-chaining, these results are really interesting: contrary to popular belief, cross-chaining doesn’t slow you down by much at all. The small/small combination costs about 5W over the equivalent gear, and the big/big combination costs only 1W in efficiency.

This explains why we’ll often see the pros cross-chaining in the big chainring. To avoid the hassle of changing up and down in the front gear, many pros stay in the big chainring for as long as possible. It doesn’t cost them much in drivetrain efficiency, and it means they can keep the power down without having to lay off momentarily as they shift between the big and the small chainrings.

What about drivetrain wear?

For many of us, efficiency is far less important than durability and longevity. cross-chaining might be more efficient than we’d have thought, but if it’s going to ruin our chains and cassettes, it’s not a good idea for most riders. So is it bad for our bikes?

In 2022, Road.cc reached out to Shimano, SRAM, Campagnolo and FSA and asked them about the impact of cross-chaining on component life. Granted, these brands might not be the most unbiased people to ask about the performance of their products, but their responses are interesting nonetheless.

Shimano and Campagnolo both said that cross-chaining can add wear and tear to chainrings and cassettes. When cross-chaining, the plates of the chain rub on the teeth, wearing away at the chain and the teeth themselves. Over time, that leads to the degradation of the components and poor shifting performance.

Interestingly, SRAM and FSA were more positive about cross-chaining. FSA said that cross-chaining is increasingly common. Instead of telling customers how to use their products, FSA decided to “invest in the development of much stronger chains”. SRAM went further, encouraging riders to stay in the big ring whenever possible: “we love big-big”. On the durability front, SRAM said “cross-chaining is not a concern for premature component wear unless of course your chain is wearing through your front derailleur.”

With all the component brands singing a different tune, it can be tricky to know what to do. Our recommendation is to avoid cross-chaining if you want to get the maximum amount of miles out of your drivetrain components.

How to avoid cross-chaining

Here’s Alex Paton and Manon Lloyd’s simple rule to avoid cross-chaining: if you’re in the big ring, avoid the three biggest sprockets on the cassette, and if you’re in the small ring, avoid the three smallest sprockets in the cassette. You can do that by changing gear with the front chainring when you start to approach those limits on the cassette.

Long term, you can reduce the chance of cross-chaining by optimising your gear ratios for the kind of speeds you ride at. If your rides are super fast, on smooth flat roads, a bigger chainset will mean you can ride comfortably in the big chainring and the middle of the set.

If you prefer long, steady rides, maybe on gravel or mixed surfaces, a compact or even a super compact chaining can keep you in the big gear and the middle of the cassette for longer.

Other considerations

If your chain is rubbing on your derailleur it’ll give you a far greater efficiency loss.

Changing between the big and small chainring isn’t just about drivetrain efficiency. There are a couple of practical considerations too.

Firstly, there are a few situations where the time loss from changing into and out of the small chainring outweighs the efficiency gain from having a straighter chainline. And if chain wear is your main concern, it’s worth remembering that shifting between the front chainrings puts a lot of stress through the chain. In our experience, a chain snap out on the roads almost always comes during a gear change on the front chainrings.

Secondly, riding in the big chainring can help with chain retention. On cobbles, gravel or just rough roads, changing into the big ring, or cross-chaining to remain in the big ring, can help keep the chain on the teeth. In the big ring, the chain tension is higher, as the derailleur is stretched further on its spring. That means that the chain is held more securely on the teeth, reducing the chance of a dropped chain.

Finally, it’s worth saying that to increase efficiency and the life of your chain, the most important thing is to make sure that your gears are indexed correctly, kept clean, and properly lubricated. If your chain is rubbing on the front derailleur due to incorrect indexing, or if your chain is dirty or lacking chain lube, the wear on your components will be accelerated, and the efficiency of your drivetrain will be reduced. Ultimately, indexing and maintenance will have a far greater impact on your drivetrains health and efficiency than whether you cross-chain or not.

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Hikers Road Walk to Avoid Flash Floods - The Trek

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Day 141: 3 miles

This morning we woke up fairly early in the motel and got to walking. We planned to do the 33 miles from Killington to Hanover entirely on the road. The trail was probably passable in most places. But we truly couldn’t be sure with the lack of information we had. All of us were just eager to finish out Vermont and get to New Hampshire where the flooding hasn’t been nearly as bad.

Sweet Pea, Boosted, and Roxy walking the road near Killington.

We set out and did a few miles along the road. The shoulder was nice and wide, so the walking was cruisy. I managed to do a bit of writing once again while I walked. That was very cool. Then a car pulled over and a guy got out to talk to us. He hiked the trail a handful of years ago and is a triple crowner. We talked with him for a bit and then he offered to drive us whenever we wanted to go.

A gushing river near Killington, VT.

There was a convenience store just a couple miles down the road, so we decided to take the offer and get a short hitch. We had actually talked in the morning about this possibility. I joked that we couldn’t try to hitch, but if someone offered us a ride without asking that we could consider taking it.

Damaged road due to the flash floods in Vermont.

While we were in the car, the guy talked to us about the flooding and how it had impacted the town of Woodstock where he lived. He wound up offering to drive us all the way to Woodstock. We heavily debated it because we would be skipping the 10+ miles of additional road walk to Woodstock. But at this point we also realized that we were already skipping the miles on the AT. If someone is going to offer us a ride and an opportunity to skip the road, we had to take it. Even just a few miles into the day, the road was already beating down on our bodies.

He drove us into Woodstock, which took absolutely no time at all. Then he dropped us off at a local grocery store and gave us a jar of weed before heading off. What a guy! Inside the grocery store, we all got something to eat for breakfast. Then we sat outside to hang out and take a break before we continued along. Now we only had about 18-19 miles of road walk left for the day, which was a much less daunting number.

Grocery store sushi in Woodstock, VT.

A glass jug of milk from the grocery store in Woodstock.

While we were sitting out in front of the store, a few people stopped to talk to us about our hike. One guy who lived locally told us about the hikers that he’s assisted in the past. He repeatedly offered to drive us to Hanover. Initially, we turned down his offer because we had already skipped some of the road walk. But as he kept offering, we once again realized that there was very little point to us road walking.

Like I’ve said before, I’m no purist. The fact that we are road walking at all is a pretty good indication of that. We came to the conclusion that walking the 30+ miles on the road was pretty pointless. It’s not a scenic walk whatsoever. And in some places where there is no shoulder, the road is genuinely dangerous. So we decided to take Jack up on his offer to drive us into Hanover. From there, we can get back on the AT and hopefully get back into a normal routine again of hiking along the actual trail. This last week has been a damn mess to our routine for sure.

The large river which you cross along the bridge going from Vermont to New Hampshire on the AT.

Having to take so many unexpected zeros has been a bit demoralizing. We were previously on a pretty good schedule and getting in consistently big miles. So it’s been unfortunate to have to take so much time off, do so much road walking, and get so off track. That’s how it’s felt lately, at least. But when we got dropped off in Hanover, I could feel an immediate shift in our morale. I’m looking forward to crushing miles once again and roughing it on the trail. I look forward to the difficult terrain and long days ahead in New Hampshire.

Passing by the Vermont/New Hampshire line!

Once in town, we stopped off at a coffee shop to hang out briefly. I got a delicious iced latte and sat outside. I wound up talking to my dad on the phone, which was really nice. He actually plans to drive up in a few days when we are going to be close to a town. That would be super cool. I haven’t seen any of my family in 4.5 months! So it would be great to see him and spend some time together.

All of us hung out on the street for a while before we decided to walk to a place called Molly’s for some drinks. We planned to spend the night in Hanover, so we really had no place to be. There were $3 margaritas at Molly’s, which we just could not resist. While we were there, another hiker, House, came and met up with his. He got in yesterday but had been waiting for some friends to catch up. All of us hung out at the restaurant for a while. I tried texting about eight different trail angels who sometimes allow hikers to stay over at their homes. But sadly, just about everyone was out of town or already hosting people for the night. Only a couple of people never got back to me.

A bubble tea that I got in Hanover, NH.

When we left the restaurant, we headed down the street to a local coop. I got some citizen ciders there and then we walked across a soccer field to where the Appalachian Trail picked up. The trail actually walks right through the town of Hanover, which is pretty cool.

A mural painted on the sidewalk in Hanover, NH.

It felt so good to be back in the woods and on trail! Even just lying there in the dirt on the AT felt amazing. We were finally back home. All of us hung out in the woods for a long while. The guys bought a case of beers, so we all shot gunned one, because why the heck not. Then we talked and lounged for a while there. Later on, we wound up walking back into town to grab some food. We went to a pretty nice restaurant because it was the only thing open. I got brussels sprouts and French fries, which were good, but a little disappointing for the cost.

Shot gunning bears in the woods in Hanover.

Then we headed back to the big field to lay around and hang for a bit. There were a group of Dartmouth students playing a game with a volleyball in the field. Boosted and House joined in with them and it was really fun to watch them all run around and try to keep the ball up in the air. We drank beers in the field and then decided to head back to the AT and set up our tents for the night.

Laying in the field by Dartmouth college.

While we were walking back, we ran into a guy that we had met earlier in the day. He’s visiting his grandfather in Hanover and is originally from Washington state. We talked about the PCT because he had spent a lot of time out there on his skis. It was fun to talk to someone who knew the area. We bantered a bit about the PCT. Then he whipped out a joint and offered to share it with us. We smoked with him and talked for a while. Then headed back to set up on the AT.

Me and the guy that we met in Hanover and wound up smoking with in the park.

It was dark by the time that we were back in the woods. We all got our tents set up and sat out briefly all together. Then I headed into my tent to call it a night.

Day 142: zero day

This morning I woke up to it absolutely pouring rain. Once again, I was getting flash flood notifications on my phone. Which I am starting to get very tired of. I laid in my tent for a while before I could no longer resist the urge to pee. So I bundled up in my rain gear and headed outside.

The area where we were camped was already beginning to form large pools of water. It was pretty soggy and puddled even yesterday when we arrived. Even though it was a hot and sunny day out. I laid in my tent for a while longer and checked the radar. The rain wasn’t going to be letting up anytime soon. So I hollered over to the guys that I was going to start packing up. It would be nice to get our tents put away in case the area was going to get any more soggy and flooded than it already was.

Once I was ready to go, I headed over to the coop, which was a short walk. I got a coffee and a breakfast sandwich inside and then sat at a covered area with picnic tables. The rain was still coming down pretty hard and even blowing into the covered area. The guys arrived and we all checked the weather. It was looking like the rain was going to keep up all day long. There were flash flood warnings in effect for the area that we were in still. And I had zero desire to hike out into the mess of it all. We have gotten such bad weather lately. So if we are in town and are able to avoid it, then I want to. We took practically no zero days off this entire trail, so we might as well use some up now.

Hanging out with a bunch of SOBOs outside the coop in Hanover.

In the first 101 days on the AT this year, I only took seven zeros. And two of those zeros were for trail days. That certainly puts into perspective what we’ve been dealing with lately with weather. This is now our third zero day in the last seven days. Making today our tenth zero in 108 days on trail. I think that if we are in the mood to wait out some rain today that that is a perfectly alright thing to do. We earned it.

In the 142 days that I’ve been on this Bama➡️Baxter thru-hike, I have taken a total of 17 zero days, seven of which were on the Pinhoti trail, with no zeroes on the Benton Mackaye. That was about one zero every five days on the Pinhoti. I took it nice and easy on the Pinhoti and zeroed more regularly to ease myself into my long walk. It’s funny to think of how few zeros I’ve taken on this trail. Because last year on the PCT I took 153 days to finish and took well over 30 zero days. Every hike is different. That’s part of what makes thru-hiking so great.

We sat out at the coop for a while trying to figure out exactly what we wanted to do. All of us wanted to get out of the rain and get a room, but there was nothing remotely reasonable in Hanover. So we would have to hitch over to the neighboring town of West Lebanon, which was five miles away. We would just have to get a hitch over there at some point. But it seemed like there were plenty of accommodations there for us to find a place for the night.

While we were still at the coop, a group of about four southbounders arrived. It was cool to meet them all and talk with them. One of the girls had a dog, which was absolutely adorable. Boosted was happy to see that another dog made it easily through the White Mountains. We hung out with the SOBOs for a while talking. Then decided to get out on the road and try to get a ride into West Lebanon.

We stood out on the road for about five to ten minutes before a guy walked by us and asked where we were trying to go. He lived right down the street and offered to give us a ride in his van. So we walked over to his house with him and loaded in. While we drove, I booked a room for us in town on my phone. Then he brought us right to the hotel! Everything couldn’t have worked out better.

Getting a hitch in a VW bus to go from Hanover to West Lebanon.

When we got there, we were a bit too early. But the guy let us leave our packs behind the counter, which was nice. Then we sat around in the lobby for a bit doing random stuff on our phones. After that, we decided to go grab something to eat. Sweet Pea and I wanted Panera, so we headed over there. But it was an absolute mad house! We got in and were able to order, but they were seriously understaffed, so it took a really long time to come out. Then we ate there quickly and began walking back.

When we got back around 1:00 p.m., we were able to check into the room. But we were disappointed to find that the guy charged us extra because of having more than two people in the room. I knew that if we were a family, he wouldn’t have charged us extra for the additional people. Personally, I think four people is a completely normal number to have in a two queen room. But what can you do, I suppose.

Once we were checked in, we pretty much immediately headed down to the pool and jacuzzi. That was definitely the highlight of the hotel for sure. It had an indoor heated pool and a hot tub and was still quite reasonable. The water felt so great on my body. What a great way to spend a day off!

The jacuzzi at our hotel in West Lebanon.

The amazing pool at our hotel in West Lebanon.

After that, we hung out in the room and were able to shower and do laundry. I got a good bit of blogging done, which felt wonderful. Then we decided to walk down to a Chinese restaurant later on to pick up dinner. If there is any style of food that I’ve been craving to most on trail, it would be the broad category of “Asian food.” Sushi, Thai, Chinese, Korean bbq, you name it. Those are really the only foods that I actually crave anymore. Just about everything else had completely lost its luster to me.

I ordered crab Rangoons, dumplings, and scallion pancakes. A classic appetizer spread. And on our walk back, I got some drinks and a few last-minute resupply items. Then we went back to the hotel to lay around and eat Chinese food! I was so damn content. I laid in bed and ate like a princess. We watched TV and all just chilled out for the rest of the night.

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Warren Buffett Will Collect $4.31 Billion in Annual-Dividend Income From These 5 Stocks

Want to Get Richer? 2 Top Stocks to Buy Now and Hold Forever

What's Your Social Security Break-Even Age? It Matters a Lot.

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Warren Buffett Will Collect $4.31 Billion in Annual-Dividend Income From These 5 Stocks

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What's Your Social Security Break-Even Age? It Matters a Lot.

3 Stocks That Can Turn $10,000 Into $50,000 by 2025

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Exclusive: With Tesla push, India mulls import tax cut if EV makers ... - Reuters

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• Summary
• Companies

• Tesla pushes for India EV import tax policy change-sources
• Proposes duty tax cut for EV makers who commit to invest-sources
• India considering plan, wary of impact on local players
• Tesla has expressed interest in India plant, cheaper EV

NEW DELHI, Aug 25 (Reuters) - India is working on a new electric vehicle policy that would slash import taxes for automakers that commit to some local manufacturing, following a proposal by Tesla (TSLA.O) which is considering entering the domestic market, people with direct knowledge said.

The policy being considered could allow automakers to import fully-built EVs into India at a reduced tax as low as 15%, compared to the current 100% that applies to cars which cost above $40,000 and 70% for the rest, said two of the sources, including a senior Indian government official.

Tesla's best-selling Model Y, for example, starts at $47,740 in the U.S. before tax credits.

"There is an understanding with Tesla's proposal and government is showing interest," said the official, who is familiar with the issue.

If such a policy is adopted, it could amount to a drastic reduction in the cost of imported EVs that local carmakers have been keen to avoid. It could also open the door for global automakers, beyond Tesla, to tap the world's third-largest car market where sales of EVs are less than 2% of total car sales, but growing rapidly.

The lower import taxes could help Tesla sell its full range of models in India, and not just the new car it wants to make locally, said a third source.

Other countries have taken similar measures to spur EV manufacturing commitments. Indonesia, for example, has offered to reduce import duties from 50% to zero for EV makers planning investments, a move seen aimed at attracting Chinese players and Tesla.

India's commerce and finance ministries, and Tesla, did not respond to requests for comment. The policy is still in the initial stages of deliberation and the final tax rate could change, two of the sources said.

Tesla first tried to enter India in 2021 by pushing officials to lower the 100% import tax for EVs. Last year, the talks between Tesla and the Indian government collapsed when officials conveyed the company would have to first commit to local manufacturing.

More recently, Tesla has told Indian officials it is keen to set up a local factory and make a new EV priced in the range of $24,000, around 25% cheaper than its current entry model, for both the Indian market and export.

"LOT OF DELIBERATIONS"

Outside the United States, Tesla currently has a plant in Shanghai - its largest factory worldwide - and one outside Berlin. It is building a new plant in Mexico that will focus on a new mass-market EV platform Musk has said will slash costs for consumers.

For India plans, Tesla's senior public policy and business development executive Rohan Patel has in recent weeks met top officials privately. Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who held talks with CEO Elon Musk in June, has been tracking progress closely, Reuters has reported.

One of the sources said Tesla told Indian officials a potential India factory could operate at full capacity by 2030.

Indian officials have conveyed there will be no special incentives for Tesla's market entry, and the proposal for a low import tax, conditional on a manufacturing commitment, was touted by Tesla to keep both sides happy, the sources said.

Still, New Delhi is going to move slowly in considering the policy proposal as any lowering of taxes on imported EVs could disrupt the market and upset local players like Tata Motors (TAMO.NS) and Mahindra and Mahindra (MAHM.NS) that are investing to build electric cars at home.

"This is going to go through a lot of deliberations even though government is keen on getting Tesla. That's because of the impact on domestic players," the Indian official said.

Reporting by Aditi Shah, Aditya Kalra and Nikunj Ohri; Additional reporting by Shivangi Acharya; Editing by Kevin Krolicki and Raju Gopalakrishnan

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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Aditya Kalra

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Aditya Kalra is the Company News Editor for Reuters in India, overseeing business coverage and reporting stories on some of the world's biggest companies. He joined Reuters in 2008 and has in recent years written stories on challenges and strategies of a wide array of companies -- from Amazon, Google and Walmart to Xiaomi, Starbucks and Reliance. He also extensively works on deeply-reported and investigative business stories.

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1 Reason PayPal Stock Is a Screaming Buy, and 1 Reason to Avoid ... - The Motley Fool

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Investors have certainly been disappointed with the performance of PayPal (PYPL 1.28%) shares, which are currently down 80% from their all-time high. Shares have dropped 15% this year alone (as of Aug. 22), not benefiting at all from the broader market's rally. 

The fintech company is dealing with a slowdown, a change of pace from the monster growth it registered during the worst days of the coronavirus pandemic. Other factors are also likely adding to the pessimism, but it's not all bad news. 

Let's take a closer look at one reason PayPal stock is a screaming buy right now, and one reason investors should avoid it like the plague. 

New leadership 

Dan Schulman has been PayPal's CEO since the company was spun off from eBay in 2015. He led the business to tremendous growth, going from 179 million active accounts and $282 billion in total payment volume (TPV) in 2015 to 435 million active accounts and TPV of $1.4 trillion in 2022. Thanks to these impressive gains, PayPal's stock was up 740% between its spinoff and the all-time high, crushing the Nasdaq Composite index's 196% rise during the same time. 

Schulman is set to retire at the end of this year, something current shareholders are probably cheering for. Bears could make a valid argument that some major acquisitions he made in recent years, like $4 billion for Honey and $2.7 billion for Paidy, were a waste of capital that instead could've been directed toward amplifying the core payments platform.

Moreover, Schulman lost credibility when he set a lofty target of PayPal reaching 750 million active accounts by 2025, double the total at the end of 2020, only to take that goal back when he realized that pandemic growth wasn't going to last forever. 

It was recently announced that Alex Chriss, currently the executive vice president and general manager of the small business and self-employed group at Intuit, will replace Schulman. A leadership change might be exactly what PayPal needs to jump-start growth and improve capital allocation.

Chriss could bring a fresh perspective to PayPal's operations, doubling down on key products like the branded checkout button and Braintree, for example. He could also avoid making any costly acquisitions, instead using free cash flow to aggressively buy back more shares that are trading at a depressed price-to-earnings ratio of 17.  

Intense competition 

At the end of 2022, PayPal was by far the most widely accepted digital wallet among the top 1,500 retailers in North America and Europe, with 79% of market share. By being a pioneer in electronic payments with a history that spans more than two decades, the company has developed a reputation and brand image known for security, convenience, and trust in the industry. And the first-mover advantage is why PayPal has such a big lead among rivals. 

But the payments space is incredibly lucrative, and numerous businesses are trying to get a piece of the action. Behind PayPal, Apple Pay and Alphabet's Google Pay are the next two most popular digital wallets. And they are quickly gaining greater adoption. Apple Pay, for instance, saw its usage surge during the holidays last year, growth that far outpaced PayPal's during the period. Because the tech giants have a stranglehold on the market for mobile operating systems, they could find ways to prioritize their own checkout options over PayPal's. 

Even Venmo, PayPal's popular peer-to-peer service, faces stiff competition from the likes of Block's Cash App, as well as Zelle, which is owned by a group of large banks. Venmo also offers debit and credit cards, but this raises competition from an unlimited number of financial institutions that do the same thing. 

On the merchant side, PayPal's Braintree offering goes up against Shopify, Stripe, and Adyen. All of these rivals are formidable opponents offering a wide range of services to drive customer stickiness. 

The business has to constantly be on top of its game because stiff competition increases the uncertainty surrounding PayPal's long-term prospects. That's something shareholders might want to avoid. 

Suzanne Frey, an executive at Alphabet, is a member of The Motley Fool's board of directors. Neil Patel and his clients have no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Adyen, Alphabet, Apple, Block, Intuit, PayPal, and Shopify. The Motley Fool recommends eBay and recommends the following options: short October 2023 $52.50 calls on eBay and short September 2023 $67.50 puts on PayPal. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

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After tanking 98% in 2022, Carvana (CVNA 4.90%) shares are bouncing back nicely this year. They have soared a whopping 752% in 2023 (as of Aug. 21), a clear sign of renewed optimism from investors. 

The used car e-commerce company is winning over shareholders by posting better-than-expected financial results. But that doesn't mean it's time to automatically rush into buying the stock now. 

Let's look at one obvious reason that Carvana's stock is a screaming buy and one reason investors should stay away.

Growth potential 

Carvana has grown so rapidly over the past several years (revenue of $3 billion in the latest quarter versus revenue of $42 million in all of 2014) because it offers a superior alternative for customers looking to buy used cars. It's that simple: There's a clear product-market fit that the business has benefited from. 

The typical car-buying process -- where a customer walks into a local dealership, picks from a limited inventory, haggles with a salesperson, and then has to secure financing -- can take hours out of the day and be very stressful. By developing an e-commerce model, Carvana allows the entire process to be completed online in just a few minutes. What's more, the car is delivered for free, and there's a seven-day return policy. The company has taken the best parts of the e-commerce experience and applied them to the used car industry. 

In 2022, Carvana sold 412,296 retail units. While that figure is up more than nine-fold compared to 2017's total, it's a minuscule amount in the grand scheme of the industry. There were 40.6 million used car transactions in 2021 in the U.S. with an estimated value of $1.2 trillion. It's anyone's guess how much of the total market Carvana can command over time, but the addressable market is truly massive.

Management's long-term financial goal is to generate an EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) margin of between 8% and 13.5%. If the leadership team's target is one day reached, it's likely the company's market cap will be multiples of the current $7.6 billion. 

Uncertain outcome 

Investors can't forget that Carvana remains a risky business. This is still the case despite management finding ways to provide temporary relief by restructuring $1.2 billion of debt and lowering interest payments by $430 million in each of the next couple of years. 

There is competition in the industry not only from traditional dealerships but from formidable opponents like CarMax, Vroom, and AutoNation. All want a piece of the pie, so Carvana has to stay on top of its game to gain market share. This will undoubtedly make it harder to improve the company's finances.

What has also become strikingly clear since the start of 2022 is just how dependent Carvana is on favorable market conditions not only for its success but simply for its survival. What happens with interest rates, used car prices, inflation, and supply chains is outside the company's control, yet it has a huge effect on its results in any given period. This means investors are exposed to the whims of unpredictable macro forces. 

Carvana's potential can't be denied. The issue, though, is that there's still a ton of uncertainty surrounding the company's future. In other words, there is still a meaningful probability that the business will be forced to file for bankruptcy at some point in the next few years. Consequently, it's difficult for investors to have a high level of confidence in owning shares with the financial position still something to worry about. 

Weigh the pros and cons 

I can understand why someone would want to allocate a small part of their overall portfolio, say 1%, to buying Carvana shares. The upside is huge should the company execute on its strategy and resume strong growth trends in the years ahead. In this scenario, the stock can be much higher than it is today. 

On the other hand, it can't be denied that this is a risky bet. Carvana's management team deserves some credit for weathering the last year and a half, including a shaky economic environment. But what if a severe recession ends up happening? How will the company perform in the situation? It still has a huge debt burden, something that could cause pain in a downturn.

Investors have a lot to think about before making an informed decision about the stock. 

Neil Patel has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends CarMax. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

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