11 sneaky ways narcissists manipulate you - and how to avoid it - Hack Spirit

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In the intricate labyrinth of human behavior, nothing is quite as bewildering or potentially damaging as the insidious tactics of a narcissist.

If you often find yourself doubting your own reality or questioning your worth, you could be a pawn in a narcissist’s subtle game of manipulation. 

From romantic relationships to the workplace, discover the sneaky ways narcissists manipulate you and, more importantly, learn how to ingeniously sidestep these traps and regain control.

1) Love bombing 

At the beginning of a relationship, narcissists may shower you with excessive attention, compliments, and affection in a tactic called love bombing. 

They do this to make you feel special, gain your trust quickly, and put your guard down. 

It’s easy to see why this works. We all love to be showered with attention and love, and once we get it, it’s challenging to take a step back and re-evaluate things. I mean, we’re getting love BOMBED here. 

To avoid this trap, you must try to set a healthy pace in your relationships. Ensure you maintain your independence and individuality in your relationships and evaluate the motives of those rushing intimacy. 

After love bombing, be wary of this next way of manipulating. 

2) Devaluation

Devaluation, as its name says, is a strategy that manipulators and narcissists use to make you feel worthless in your own eyes. The result is that you become more dependent on them. 

To do that, they’ll use criticism, insults, and even neglect. 

This last one comes as quite a shock after we’ve been at the center of attention for some time. 

To counter their strategy, you’ll need to remember your strengths and accomplishments.

Do not let the narcissist define your worth or make you feel less valuable. 

However, be aware that they might want to hook you back in with this next powerful tactic. 

3) Silent treatment 

Silent treatment often serves as a punishment and a way to make you feel anxious and desperate for their attention.

They accomplish this by withdrawing all communication and affection and basically ignoring you. 

DON’T chase after them. I know it’s easier said than done, especially if you’re fighting with reduced confidence and self-worth. 

On the other side, you need to prioritize your emotional well-being. Even if they weren’t a narcissist, do you really want to be with someone who just flat-out ignores you?

Perhaps you weren’t a good fit, and it’s time to move on. There’s (still) plenty of fish in the sea.  

4) Projection 

Projection is a classic way of manipulating people. In most individuals, it happens subconsciously, but it doesn’t make it right, though. 

Narcissists often project their own flaws, insecurities, or wrongdoings onto others. If they accuse you of behaviors or motives they possess themselves, they do it to deflect blame and maintain their self-image.

Here are a few examples of projection:

• Accusing others of being selfish
• Blaming others for their mistakes
• Claiming others are jealous or envious
• Accusing others of being controlling
• Labeling others as attention-seeking

And so on. It’s an endless list, really. 

But how do we recognize and counter this classic behavior? It all comes down to recognizing these patterns, knowing yourself, and remembering your own actions and behaviors. 

This last point will be extremely important for this next phase. 

5) Gaslighting 

Gaslighting has gained a lot of attention in recent years. However, it’s not a new phenomenon. If you aren’t sure what it is, it’s when others make you question your perception of reality. 

They may deny things they said or did, twist the facts, or make you doubt your memory. If you’ve never encountered this before, it can be quite shocking but also easy to recognize.

To avoid and oppose this highly manipulative behavior, keep a record of key events and conversations to refer back to. 

Also, trust your own perceptions and remember that it’s okay to disagree with someone else’s recollection. They aren’t perfect, and neither is their memory or the way they behave. 

6) Triangulation 

Triangulation is another favorite tool for those trying to manipulate you. It involves pitting people against each other by involving a third party to create chaos, basically. 

Spreading gossip, playing the victim, creating difficult situations, and much more in an attempt to gain control and divide relationships. 

For some, this is describing a typical day in the office. I know that it was for me at one point in my life. 

It’s a situation that you can only escape by severing all ties with a person like that. You can’t just mind your own business here. 

It’s not a solution, unfortunately, and things will only get worse if you don’t maintain open and direct communication with others involved and distance yourself from the manipulator. 

By doing that, you’ll avoid one of their favorite tactics – twisting the conversation.

7) Twisting the conversation 

Narcissists often manipulate and twist conversations to their advantage by changing the subject, using false flattery, or playing the victim when they’re called out.

They love to flatly deny any wrongdoing and immediately counter with accusations against you. That way, they attack your character by bringing up past mistakes, or shifting the focus onto your perceived flaws, deflecting attention from their own behavior.

They might also downplay the significance of the issue at hand or dismiss your feelings altogether. 

There are many ways, shapes, and forms to manipulate conversations. You need to avoid falling into their trap by staying focused on the original issue, maintaining your composure, and assertively restating your concerns.

8) Guilt-tripping 

We’ve come to another favorite tool in the toolbox of narcissists. They use guilt as a weapon to sway your emotions and behavior.

It includes exaggerated sighs, dramatic expressions of disappointment, or tearful displays to prompt a strong emotional response. By making you feel guilty, they aim to gain control and get you to comply with their wishes.

I’ve met narcissists who like to selectively remember and bring up past mistakes or instances where you fell short. 

They use these reminders to fuel guilt within you and maintain a power dynamic where they hold the moral high ground. I can tell you it’s something you don’t want to see for yourself. 

Let’s see what else they have in their arsenal. 

9) Isolation 

Now we’re getting even more serious. When narcissists try to isolate you from your friends or family, you know they mean business. 

By doing that, they have all the control over you and even make you distrust the people you love the most.

One way they do that is to criticize your loved ones or create doubts about their intentions. They will flat-out tell you lies about them, but for some reason, you will believe those lies. 

I know we all act strangely when we fall in love, and we are at the beginning stages of our relationships. 

I’ve had friends that would completely fall out of our social circle once they were with someone romantically. 

I can’t say that I was immune myself, too. Love is a powerful drug. 

However, maintaining connections with supportive people outside the relationship and seeking their perspective is incredibly important.

10) Moving The Goalposts

Moving the goalposts is another form of manipulation where the narcissist sets expectations or goals for you and then changes them once you’ve met them. 

It’s like running a marathon, but every time you get to the finish line, you have to keep running more. 

This keeps you in a perpetual state of trying to please the narcissist and allows the narcissist to maintain control over you.

You need to have your own personal and professional goals, celebrate your achievements and acknowledge your progress, and make it clear that your achievements and successes are not up for debate or devaluation.

11) Hoovering 

And lastly, we’ve come to a funny-sounding but scary tactic. You see, hoovering is a tactic narcissists use to draw you back into a relationship or interaction when you try to distance yourself or end the relationship. This can happen even after a period of separation. 

They will suddenly show remorse, promise change, or use sentimental tactics to make you question leaving or setting boundaries. 

The only thing you can do is stay firm in your decision and remember the reasons why you’re distancing or ending the relationship in the first place. 

There are no ifs, buts, or maybes here. 

Final thoughts

We hope this article helped you recognize manipulative behavior you might encounter in your workplace, romantic relationships, or from your friends and family. 

As you can see, there are many ways you can counter their sneaky ways of manipulation. There are also many perfect comebacks for dealing with a manipulator. 

But perhaps the most important thing you can do is trust in yourself and seek support and affirmation from other people you trust. 

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Co-authored with Treading Softly.

Raising livestock is a difficult business. Beyond the day-to-day care and responsibilities, there is the mental aspect as well. Many new hobby farmers get too attached to the individual lives of very fragile creatures. While I'm not advocating for mistreating or improperly caring for animals, getting too attached to a living creature that has a very fragile existence is a recipe for sadness and failure.

One study on recently hatched baby chicks revealed that up to 50% of them will die before adulthood. This means that if you get really attached to a baby chicken, you have a coin flip of a chance of whether or not that chicken will become an adult. It can be emotionally taxing, and many give up their dreams of raising chickens because they fear the risk of loss.

More than one would-be hobby farmer raised cattle or hogs for meat and ended up with permanent pets. In essence, they quit before they receive the payoff.

When it comes to the market, people will often try to cut losses or avoid losses before they potentially occur. Peter Lynch famously said,

"Far more money has been lost by investors trying to anticipate corrections, than lost in the corrections themselves."

The big mistake people make is that they think they need to exit the stock market or leave the economy due to the fear of a recession. When they believe that things will get tough, they quit – never getting the long-term payoff that the market has proven to provide routinely.

What I like to remind members of my High Dividend Opportunities community is that, while a bull market mints millionaires, it's the bear market that decides who those people are going to be when the recovery occurs. As professional income investors, we're here to scoop up income on sale and enjoy it for decades to come. All those people trying to time the market and get out before potential losses or recessions happen are simply providing us with outstanding and amazing opportunities to reap high yields for years to come.

I'd rather be a buyer of great income than lock in losses for no reason other than fear. Today, I want to look at two excellent companies that are on sale and are providing high yields now and will continue to do so going forward.

Let's dive in!

Pick #1: ORCC - Yield 10.4%

Owl Rock Capital Corporation (ORCC) is the second-largest public BDC (Business Development Company) in the U.S. by market cap. It focuses on lending to upper middle-market companies, with most of its portfolio in sponsor-backed companies. ORCC knocked it out of the park with Q1 earnings, reporting Net Investment Income ("NII") of $0.45, a new record for the company and easily covering its $0.33 dividend and $0.04 supplement paid last quarter. For Q2, ORCC announced it is increasing the supplement to $0.06, which will be paid in June, while the regular $0.33 dividend will be paid in July. ORCC management continues to believe that getting dividends more frequently is better - we agree.

ORCC is achieving these fantastic results while maintaining leverage at 1.21x debt/equity. Over the past year, leverage has ranged from 1.17x-1.21x, essentially flat, even as earnings have grown from $0.31 to $0.45/share.

On top of record NII, ORCC also grew its NAV by $0.16/share. Source

ORCC Q1 2023 Investor Presentation

ORCC focuses on larger businesses than most BDCs do. Like Ares Capital (ARCC), ORCC focuses on the "upper middle market" with their borrowers having an average EBITDA of $176 million. These larger companies are lower risk, contributing to ORCC having very stable credit metrics. Only two borrowers are on non-accrual, accounting for 0.5% of ORCC's portfolio at cost basis.

ORCC Q1 2023 Investor Presentation

ORCC is seeing growing NII, rising NAV, frequent supplemental dividends, and high credit quality in its portfolio. We've been saying for the past several years that ORCC is a high-quality BDC that deserves to trade at a premium to NAV. The proof is in the numbers, ORCC is crushing it. Eventually, Mr. Market will wake up and notice. Until then, we are happy to collect multiple dividends every quarter and buy more shares at a discount to NAV.

Pick #2: SLRC - Yield 11.8%

SLR Investment Corp. (SLRC) is a BDC that focuses on asset-based and equipment-based lending. This form of lending is lower risk because SLRC has specific collateral that can be seized or repossessed in the event the borrower defaults. As a result, SLRC has frequently outperformed peers in terms of credit quality.

Where SLRC ran into difficulty during COVID was the volume of loans they held. When speaking about "concerns" over leverage, our concern is usually that the company might be overleveraged and taking on too much risk. Over the past two years, the problem for SLRC has been the opposite - SLRC was underleveraged. When COVID happened, companies simply stopped borrowing. So, as SLRC's borrowers were so inconsiderate as to actually pay off what they owed, SLRC saw its earnings decline.

In Q1 of last year, SLRC reported NII of $0.32 with leverage at 0.98x debt/equity, failing to cover the dividend. By Q1 this year, SLRC grew NII 28% to $0.41, meeting its $0.41 dividend. This increase was primarily thanks to increasing leverage to 1.12x, with some help from rising interest rates.

Most BDCs borrow at a fixed rate and lend floating-rate loans. This is the main reason why BDCs have seen significant earnings growth over the past year. Most BDCs have 90%+ loans at floating rates. SLRC has a different profile, with about 2/3rds of its portfolio paying a floating interest rate. Source.

SLRC Q1 2023 Earnings Release

As a result, SLRC is less interest rate sensitive than the average BDC. The positive is that when interest rates start to decline, SLRC will be able to maintain its NII.

While SLRC's leverage has increased from 0.98x to 1.12x over the past year, leverage is still very conservative. Management has indicated they would be willing to bring leverage up to a maximum of 1.25x. We believe the ideal range would be 1.15x-1.2x.

SLRC continued to pay the current dividend through the difficult years, and now they are covering it. As it leverages up more, the dividend will become even more secure.

NAV is $18.04/share, making SLR Investment Corp. a very attractive price opportunity today.

Conclusion

Even if the economy may be slowly approaching a recession or is in the midst of a recession, the economy is still in motion.

If every business was to shut down and every person were to become unemployed, there would be absolutely no economic activity whatsoever. Of course, this is a ridiculous thought, as somebody would have to be doing something for us to be fed or to get water or power – there will always be some level of economic output, even if it's pockets of small regional activity.

These two investments that we've looked at, Owl Rock Capital Corporation and SLR Investment Corp., are both engaged in various sections of the economy. They provide vital financial liquidity and management services to middle-market companies to enable them to continue to operate and provide basic services to you and me.

Don't make the big mistake that so many make, and lock in losses simply because you fear losses. Instead, think like a professional income investor – make the big choices to get the big income and then enjoy it over and over again.

My goal for each one of you is that if you choose to be an income investor, you can proudly wear a shirt that says, "My retirement is paid for by dividends!", and have it be the truth. Nothing beats financial security for a more relaxing and enjoyable retirement. Financial security can be achieved through having excess income that overwhelms and overpowers your expenses.

That's the beauty of our income method. That's the beauty of income investing.

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Debt-ceiling deal avoids 'extremely negative' consequences: Fed's ... - Reuters.com

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May 28 (Reuters) - Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee on Sunday welcomed news of a deal to suspend the U.S. debt ceiling, saying failure to forge an agreement would be "extremely negative" for the financial system and broader economy.

Interviewed on CBS's "Face the Nation," he declined to say whether he would support an interest-rate hike at the Fed meeting on June 13-14. He said the full impact of central bank rate increases to date had yet to be felt.

“I try ... to make it a point not to prejudge and make decisions when you are still weeks out from the meeting," Goolsbee said. "We are going to get a lot of important data between now and then."

He said he was heartened by indications U.S. lawmakers will ratify the debt ceiling deal embraced by Republican congressional leader Kevin McCarthy and Democratic President Joe Biden.

"If you did not do that, the consequences for the financial system and for the broader economy would be extremely negative," Goolsbee said. "Even the anticipation of these problems does have consequences on the economy, it does have consequences on financial markets."

There is already "fear and uncertainty" just around interest rates, which the Fed has raised by a full five percentage points since March 2022, Goolsbee said.

Calling into question the value of U.S. debt - among the world's safest and most widely held assets - "is not good for lending, is not good for the real economy... let's just avoid it: let's raise the debt ceiling and get onto the next thing."

Goolsbee said he believed the Fed could avoid recession.

"The actions that the Fed takes take months or even years to work their way through the system ... there's no doubt inflation is too high, still - it has come down - and we are just trying to manage. Can we get inflation down without starting a recession?"

Goolsbee is seen as being among the Fed's more dovish policymakers, more sensitive to threats to the Fed's mandate to keep Americans fully employed than to the dangers of high inflation, though he has joined his colleagues in raising rates so far this year.

After 10 straight interest-rate hikes that have by early this month brought the policy rate to a 5.00%-5.25% range, Fed policymakers have signaled they may skip raising rates in June to assess the impact of their policy tightening so far.

The latest data showing inflation is still running at more than double the Fed's 2% target, and making slower progress than policymakers had hoped, has traders betting the Fed is not done raising rates yet.

Still to come before the Fed's June rate decision is another monthly read on the U.S. unemployment rate, now at a decades-low of 3.4%, and on consumer price inflation.

Reporting by Ann Saphir; Editing by Andrea Ricci and Howard Goller

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Ann Saphir

Thomson Reuters

Reports on the Federal Reserve and the U.S. economy. Stories can be found at reuters.com. Contact: 312-593-8342

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Biden, GOP reach tentative deal to raise debt ceiling, avoid calamitous US default - ABC News

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WASHINGTON -- President Joe Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy reached an “agreement in principle” to raise the nation's legal debt ceiling late Saturday as they raced to strike a deal to limit federal spending and avert a potentially disastrous U.S. default.

However, the agreement risks angering both Democratic and Republican sides with the concessions made to compromise. Negotiators agreed to some Republican demands for increased work requirements for recipients of food stamps that had sparked an uproar from House Democrats as a nonstarter.

Support from both parties will be needed to win congressional approval next week before the government's projected June 5 debt default.

The Democratic president and Republican speaker reached the agreement after the two spoke earlier Saturday evening by phone. The country and the world have been watching and waiting for a resolution to a political standoff that threatened the U.S. and global economies.

“The agreement represents a compromise, which means not everyone gets what they want,” Biden said in a statement late Saturday night. “That’s the responsibility of governing,” he said.

Biden called the agreement “good news for the American people, because it prevents what could have been a catastrophic default and would have led to an economic recession, retirement accounts devastated, and millions of jobs lost.”

McCarthy in brief remarks at the Capitol said that "we still have a lot of work to do.”

But the Republican speaker said: “I believe this is an agreement in principle that’s worthy of the American people.”

With the outlines of a deal in place, the legislative package could be drafted and shared with lawmakers in time for House votes as soon as Wednesday, and later in the Senate.

Central to the package is a two-year budget deal that would hold spending flat for 2024 and increase it by 1% for 2025 in exchange for raising the debt limit for two years, pushing the volatile political issue past the next presidential election.

Driving hard for a deal to impose tougher work requirements on government aid recipients, Republicans achieved some but not all of what they wanted. The agreement would raise the age for existing work requirements on able-bodied adults without children from 49 to 54, but Biden was able to secure waivers for veterans and the homeless.

The two sides had also reached for an ambitious overhaul of federal permitting to ease development of energy projects and transmission lines. Instead, the agreement would put in place changes in the landmark 1970s' National Environmental Policy Act that will designate “a single lead agency” to develop environmental reviews, in hopes of streamlining the process.

The deal came together after Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen told Congress that the United States could default on its debt obligations by June 5 — four days later than previously estimated — if lawmakers did not act in time to raise the federal debt ceiling. The extended “X-date” gave the two sides a bit of extra time as they scrambled for a deal.

Biden also spoke earlier in the day with Democratic leaders in Congress to discuss the status of the talks.

The Republican House speaker had gathered top allies behind closed doors at the Capitol as negotiators pushed for a deal that would avoid the first-ever government default while also making spending cuts that House Republicans are demanding.

But as another day dragged on with financial disaster looming closer, it had appeared some of the problems over policy issues that dogged talks all week remained unresolved.

Both sides have suggested one of the main holdups was a GOP effort to expand work requirements for recipients of food stamps and other federal aid programs, a longtime Republican goal that Democrats have strenuously opposed. The White House said the Republican proposals were “cruel and senseless.”

Biden has said the work requirements for Medicaid would be a nonstarter. He had seemed potentially open to negotiating changes on food stamps, now known as the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, or SNAP, despite objections from rank-and-file Democrats.

McCarthy, who dashed out before the lunch hour Saturday and arrived back at the Capitol with a big box of takeout, declined to elaborate on those discussions. One of his negotiators, Louisiana Rep. Garret Graves, said there was “not a chance” that Republicans might relent on the work requirements issue.

Americans and the world were uneasily watching the negotiating brinkmanship that could throw the U.S. and global economy into chaos and sap world confidence in the nation’s leadership.

Anxious retirees and others were already making contingency plans for missed checks, with the next Social Security payments due next week.

Yellen said failure to act by the new date would “cause severe hardship to American families, harm our global leadership position and raise questions about our ability to defend our national security interests.”

The president, spending part of the weekend at Camp David, continued to talk with his negotiating team multiple times a day, signing off on offers and counteroffers.

Any deal would need to be a political compromise in a divided Congress. Many of the hard-right Trump-aligned Republicans in Congress have long been skeptical of the Treasury’s projections, and they are pressing McCarthy to hold out.

Lawmakers are not expected to return to work from the Memorial Day weekend before Tuesday, at the earliest, and McCarthy has promised lawmakers he will abide by the rule to post any bill for 72 hours before voting.

The Democratic-held Senate has largely stayed out of the negotiations, leaving the talks to Biden and McCarthy. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer of New York has pledged to move quickly to send a compromise package to Biden’s desk.

Weeks of talks have failed to produce a deal in part because the Biden administration resisted for months on negotiating with McCarthy, arguing that the country’s full faith and credit should not be used as leverage to extract other partisan priorities.

But House Republicans united behind a plan that resisted any tax increases to curb deficits, and instead cut spending, narrowly passing legislation in late April that was their opening offer in talks with the White House.

___

Associated Press writers Stephen Groves, Fatima Hussein, Farnoush Amiri, Seung Min Kim and videojournalist Rick Gentilo contributed to this report.

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Snakes on a Trail and Other Hiking Dangers To Avoid This Summer - The San Francisco Standard

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Brian Wong was riding along the Luiz Fire Road in April when something moved in the dirt ahead of him: A rattlesnake. 

Wong hopped off his bike in time to take a video of the big baby before it slithered into the bushes in the hills of northern San Rafael. But just a few weeks later, on a nearby track, the veteran Marin mountain biker found his ride again halted by a rattler crossing the trail.

“Yeah, when it gets hot, they all come out,” Wong said of the snakes. “It’s pretty neat to see nature up close.” 

A snake pauses at the edge of a trail in Marin County. | Courtesy Brian Wong

But other residents are more rattled by the seemingly large number of snakes being seen around the Bay Area this spring. 

While climate change’s warmer weather is driving the growth in the local rattler population, most of the snakes encountered in the region are likely harmless garter snakes. Garters are more slender with a narrow, round head compared with the diamond-shaped head and thicker body of a rattlesnake. 

But since you’re not likely to have time to closely examine the face of a snake you meet on a trail, experts have one crucial piece of advice.

“Leave snakes alone,” said Vince Anibale, chief ranger of the Bay Area District of California State Parks. “Rattlesnakes are definitely a threat, but if you leave them alone, they leave you alone—especially in the Bay Area.”

What To Do If You See a Rattlesnake

Rattlesnakes rattle when they feel threatened, warning hikers of their presence. And though the rattle of a baby snake may be undeveloped and harder to hear, experts say a juvenile’s bite is no worse than that of its parent. If a human simply gives the snake space and doesn't poke at it, both creatures can go on with their days.

“Rattlesnakes in the Bay Area are fast so if you avoid them, they will move along,” Anibale said. The bite victims he has seen in his 20-plus years as a ranger are curious dogs going in for a sniff and humans showing off by picking up a snake. In fact, studies of snake bites have found that the portion of victims who get bitten without handling or harassing the snake is very small.

If you manage to beat the odds and get bit by a rattlesnake in the Bay Area, Anibale advises calling 911 immediately and getting to a doctor as fast as possible. “The faster the better—within four hours, for sure,” said Anibale.

Though the state doesn’t keep official statistics about hazards in its parks, local sites advise visitors to be aware of four concerns: rattlesnakes, poison oak, mountain lions and ticks. Here is Anibale’s advice for dealing with other potential pitfalls on the trails.

How to Avoid Poison Oak

“In all honesty, poison oak is the biggest danger to people in the parks,” said Anibale, who hears about more problems from encounters with the rash-causing plant than any other issue. “It’s important to remember that poison oak leaves come in all different colors—red, yellow and green.”

Poison oak shows its red leaves during summer. | Maryann Jones Thompson/The Standard

Rashes are especially common in early spring when the plant moves from winter’s bare stick to summer’s green leaves, which is why staying on trails and out of bushes is the best way to keep from getting poison oak. “We [rangers] try to wear long sleeves and long pants to avoid getting it,” said Anibale. 

If you suspect you might have come in contact with the nasty plant, he advises washing right away with cold water, soap and a washcloth or something to wipe off the oil versus running water alone. 

Watch for Ticks

“Ticks are prevalent throughout the Bay Area,” said Anibale, who recommends having your buddy check your back and neck after any time on the trail. 

If one bites you, it’s important to get it off as soon as possible to prevent transmission of Lyme disease that can be carried by ticks.

A close-up of a tick crawling away after being swiped off a dog's leg. | Maryann Jones Thompson/The Standard

“I tell folks to take the tweezers and grab as close to your skin as you can until the tick releases,” said Anibale. “Don’t cover it in Vaseline or put a match near it—just get it off as soon as possible.” He said to treat the site with rubbing alcohol and call your doctor if a rash appears. You can also save the tick in a jar if you are concerned about disease.

What To Do If You See a Mountain Lion

“I’ve been working out here for 20 years, and we’ve had very few mountain lion interactions, no problems in the state parks,” Anibale said. “We know they’re around because we see them on wildlife cameras, but they’re smart and stay to themselves.”

If you encounter a mountain lion on Bay Area trails, Anibale said to extend it the same courtesy you would a rattler: give it space. 

“Mountain lions are very elusive, and they try to stay away from people,” said Anibale. But if one comes toward you, he says to “act big” and yell until it leaves the area—at which point, you should scoot along, too.

Genuine Concerns on the Trail

Anibale said a genuine concern for Bay Area hikers is exposure. While this winter, some park visitors were surprised and unprepared for snow and freezing temps found on trails, a more common situation is excessive heat.

Rising temperatures caused by climate change have increased the number of heat-exhaustion rescues needed at parks around the state. Obviously, the best way to prevent a problem is to bring plenty of water and avoid hiking during the heat of the day, especially in summer. 

But after all his time in Bay Area parks, Anibale said the scariest situations he’s encountered involve none of the dangers discussed above. 

“It’s probably the people,” Anibale said. “As a peace officer, you run into a lot of different people in the parks. Sometimes they need help, and sometimes they don’t want help.”

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DEC Announces Start of 2023 'NYHABS' Online Notification and ... - New York State Department of Environmental Conservation

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For Release: Friday, May 26, 2023

Interactive Map Displays Bloom Locations

DEC Encourages New Yorkers to "Know it, Avoid it, Report it"

The New York State Departments of Environmental Conservation (DEC) and Health (DOH) today reminded New Yorkers to learn about and be aware of harmful algal blooms, or "HABs," as the 2023 HABs notification season starts. DEC's New York Harmful Algal Bloom System (NYHABS) is now active and allows the public and trained citizens to send reports of HABs to DEC electronically via a simple, user- and mobile phone-friendly form.

"As summer begins, we encourage New Yorkers to be on the lookout for HABs, which can impact New York's lakes and waterways and pose a potential public health risk," said DEC Commissioner Basil Seggos. "Working closely with DOH and local partners in communities statewide, DEC continues to make significant investments to prevent excess nutrients and other contaminants from contributing to these potentially toxic blooms and is actively working to help New Yorkers understand how to identify and report HABs, as well as keep themselves, their families, and pets out of harm's way."

"Harmful algal blooms contain toxins that pose health risks to people and animals, so we want to encourage New Yorkers to be on the lookout this summer as they spend time in the water," said Acting State Health Commissioner Dr. James McDonald. "The New York Harmful Algal Bloom System (NYHABS) is an easy tool that allows the public to both protect themselves by becoming aware of trouble areas as well as to report blooms in an effort to help protect others."

Once evaluated by DEC and DOH, reports are posted to the NYHABS page. The system features an interactive map of current and archived bloom locations to help keep New Yorkers informed. With resources such as the online HABs map and reporting system, New York continues to be a national leader in supporting initiatives to address HABs across the state and to ensure effective communication to the public. DEC works with DOH, the State Office of Parks, Recreation and Historic Preservation (OPRHP), and other State and local partners in leading the most comprehensive HABs monitoring and reporting program in the nation. In cooperation with its partners, DEC monitors hundreds of waterbodies annually and works with DOH and OPRHP to ensure public health protections against HABs.

HABs have been monitored closely across New York State for more than a decade. DEC's Division of Water recently published an analysis of trends in the occurrence of HABs, "Detections of cyanobacteria harmful algal blooms (cyanoHABs) in New York State, United States (2012-2020)." (leaves DEC website) This work evaluated patterns in frequency, intensity, and duration of HABs compiled in large part through public reporting. This important piece of peer-reviewed literature suggests that increased public awareness of HABs, and their reporting through NYHABS, has led to an increase in confirmed HABs since 2012. However, few lakes had confirmed HABs every year of the study. The study also determined the intensity and duration of HABs did not increase. To best understand HAB conditions statewide and over time, the study highlights the importance of focusing monitoring efforts on a broad range of waterbody sizes and conditions coupled with consistent public reporting, elements DEC has incorporated into its monitoring programs and through NYHABS. HABs present several management challenges and this study and other research help advance the understanding of HABs to inform sound, scientifically driven, decision-making to protect public health and the environment.

HABs are likely triggered by a combination of factors that include excess nutrients such as phosphorus and nitrogen, lots of sunlight, low-water or low-flow conditions, calm water, and warm temperatures. HAB occurrence and reporting typically increases each year throughout the warmest months with the most reports received during August and September.

New York State has many programs and activities to reduce phosphorus and nitrogen from entering the water from surrounding lands, including stormwater permitting programs, a nutrient law that restricts the use of phosphorus lawn fertilizer, and funding for water quality improvement projects that, among other issues, improve water quality impacted by nutrients and HABs.

To date, New York has awarded more than $371 million in grants designed to reduce the frequency of algal blooms across the state by targeting phosphorus and nitrogen pollution, controllable factors that can contribute to the occurrence of HABs, and more than $14 million to research and development, pilot projects, and advanced monitoring. As part of New York State's recently announced Consolidated Funding Application (CFA) (leaves DEC website), DEC's Division of Water has two grant programs currently available that may support projects to help reduce the occurrence of HABs. These include at least $75 million in funding through the Water Quality Improvement Project (WQIP) program and up to $3 million in funding through the Non-Agricultural Nonpoint Source Planning and MS4 Mapping Grant (NPG). DEC also continues to evaluate HAB mitigation technology and strategies.

When it comes to HABs, DEC encourages New Yorkers to "KNOW IT, AVOID IT, REPORT IT."

KNOW IT - HABs vary in appearance from scattered green dots in the water, to long, linear green streaks, pea soup or spilled green paint, to blue-green or white coloration. AVOID IT - People, pets, and livestock should avoid contact with water that is discolored or has algal scums on the surface. REPORT IT - If members of the public suspect a HAB, report it through the NYHABs online reporting form available on DEC's website. Symptoms or health concerns related to HABs should be reported to DOH at harmfulalgae@health.ny.gov.

For more information about HABs, including bloom notifications, which are updated daily through fall, visit DEC's Harmful Algal Blooms web page. The HABs Program Guide, which includes information and links to resources regarding bloom prevention, management, and control, can also be downloaded from the DEC website. Visit DOH's website for DOH's public health information (leaves DEC website).

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"Wish-cycling" - What is it and How to Avoid It! - Larchmont Buzz

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"Wish-cycling" - What is it and How to Avoid It!  Larchmont Buzz

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Murmurs grow within Fed about tweaking 2% target once inflation ... - Reuters

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May 24 (Reuters) - A couple of regional Federal Reserve presidents recently have signaled an openness to examining whether 2% is the right setting for the U.S. central bank's inflation target, although the bar for change is high and any debate is well down the road.

"Could we revisit that? Sure. But we can't revisit it until we get inflation back to 2%," Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said in an interview with Reuters on Monday. Once the U.S. central bank gets inflation back to 2% "then we can have the debate about what should be the right target," he said.

In an appearance at the end of April, Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker also hinted the target could get a fresh look at some point. Like Kashkari, Harker said "we're not changing it right now," which appeared to leave open the option of altering it later without calling for a change.

The Fed adopted its 2% target in 2012, formalizing a practice in place for years. Since then, the central bank has sought to guide price pressures to that level, viewing misses to the high and low side as something to avoid. It amended the target as part of a broad review of its operating principles in 2020 to pursue the 2% level on average, just as it was about to confront the worst inflation pressures in four decades.

Any push to change it would be tough, as Fed officials have strongly defended the target throughout its existence.

At a press conference following the end of the central bank's March 21-22 policy meeting, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said he opposed any changes and noted that an unwavering commitment to the 2% target helps instill public confidence that even if price pressures are exceeding it the central bank will do what it takes to get them back down to desired levels.

Powell himself committed the Fed to reviewing its operating framework every five years, which means a reexamination of the current inflation target could realistically be put on the table in 2025.

One wrinkle in that idea is that, as recently as March, the median view among Fed officials was for inflation to still be fractionally above 2% by the end of that year. With even those open to revisiting it, like Kashkari, saying the debate ought not be joined until inflation returns to the target, any substantive discussion among policymakers may be even further away, unless inflation subsides more quickly than they currently expect.

'QUITE A CHALLENGE'

For almost as long as the Fed has had the inflation target, the level itself has been the subject of scrutiny.

In the years immediately after adopting it, inflation was consistently below 2%, leading some economists to contend that raising the target would boost inflation expectations and help real-world inflation move up toward 2%. Now, with inflation still running at more than twice the target despite 14 months of aggressive rate increases, some observers reckon raising the target would take pressure off the Fed to keep monetary policy tight and lower the risk that returning inflation to the 2% level would drive unemployment to painful levels.

The argument has resonated in some quarters because most agree the easiest part of lowering inflation is done, and the final steps to hitting the 2% target risks real economic pain.

"Getting to two is not going to be trivial, and it may be very hard for the Fed to say, well, we have to go to two and we're going to keep interest rates very high" given the possible collateral damage of such a path, said Olivier Blanchard, the International Monetary Fund's chief economist from 2008 to 2015 and now a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.

Blanchard, who said he thinks the target should probably be set at 3%, told a Brookings Institution conference on Tuesday that he expects to see a debate over whether 2% is the correct goal once inflation gets closer to that level. He said the Fed may in practice not press the final stages of getting to the target as aggressively as it has so far, mindful of what damage that might do to the economy.

Speaking on the same panel, Ben Bernanke, who was Fed chief when the 2% target was adopted, said "I agree in theory" with Blanchard's view. But he said practical realities will likely thwart any change, in large part because while the Fed avoided getting the U.S. Congress to sign off on adopting the 2% goal, raising it probably would require buy-in from legislators.

That's risky, Bernanke said, because the involvement of elected leaders could end up with a target the Fed itself might not want. "Given where we are today as opposed to starting from, you know, the original position ... it's quite a challenge to make that change."

Reporting by Michael S. Derby; editing by Paul Simao

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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Murmurs grow within Fed about tweaking 2% target once inflation ... - Reuters.com

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May 24 (Reuters) - A couple of regional Federal Reserve presidents recently have signaled an openness to examining whether 2% is the right setting for the U.S. central bank's inflation target, although the bar for change is high and any debate is well down the road.

"Could we revisit that? Sure. But we can't revisit it until we get inflation back to 2%," Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said in an interview with Reuters on Monday. Once the U.S. central bank gets inflation back to 2% "then we can have the debate about what should be the right target," he said.

In an appearance at the end of April, Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker also hinted the target could get a fresh look at some point. Like Kashkari, Harker said "we're not changing it right now," which appeared to leave open the option of altering it later without calling for a change.

The Fed adopted its 2% target in 2012, formalizing a practice in place for years. Since then, the central bank has sought to guide price pressures to that level, viewing misses to the high and low side as something to avoid. It amended the target as part of a broad review of its operating principles in 2020 to pursue the 2% level on average, just as it was about to confront the worst inflation pressures in four decades.

Any push to change it would be tough, as Fed officials have strongly defended the target throughout its existence.

At a press conference following the end of the central bank's March 21-22 policy meeting, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said he opposed any changes and noted that an unwavering commitment to the 2% target helps instill public confidence that even if price pressures are exceeding it the central bank will do what it takes to get them back down to desired levels.

Powell himself committed the Fed to reviewing its operating framework every five years, which means a reexamination of the current inflation target could realistically be put on the table in 2025.

One wrinkle in that idea is that, as recently as March, the median view among Fed officials was for inflation to still be fractionally above 2% by the end of that year. With even those open to revisiting it, like Kashkari, saying the debate ought not be joined until inflation returns to the target, any substantive discussion among policymakers may be even further away, unless inflation subsides more quickly than they currently expect.

'QUITE A CHALLENGE'

For almost as long as the Fed has had the inflation target, the level itself has been the subject of scrutiny.

In the years immediately after adopting it, inflation was consistently below 2%, leading some economists to contend that raising the target would boost inflation expectations and help real-world inflation move up toward 2%. Now, with inflation still running at more than twice the target despite 14 months of aggressive rate increases, some observers reckon raising the target would take pressure off the Fed to keep monetary policy tight and lower the risk that returning inflation to the 2% level would drive unemployment to painful levels.

The argument has resonated in some quarters because most agree the easiest part of lowering inflation is done, and the final steps to hitting the 2% target risks real economic pain.

"Getting to two is not going to be trivial, and it may be very hard for the Fed to say, well, we have to go to two and we're going to keep interest rates very high" given the possible collateral damage of such a path, said Olivier Blanchard, the International Monetary Fund's chief economist from 2008 to 2015 and now a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.

Blanchard, who said he thinks the target should probably be set at 3%, told a Brookings Institution conference on Tuesday that he expects to see a debate over whether 2% is the correct goal once inflation gets closer to that level. He said the Fed may in practice not press the final stages of getting to the target as aggressively as it has so far, mindful of what damage that might do to the economy.

Speaking on the same panel, Ben Bernanke, who was Fed chief when the 2% target was adopted, said "I agree in theory" with Blanchard's view. But he said practical realities will likely thwart any change, in large part because while the Fed avoided getting the U.S. Congress to sign off on adopting the 2% goal, raising it probably would require buy-in from legislators.

That's risky, Bernanke said, because the involvement of elected leaders could end up with a target the Fed itself might not want. "Given where we are today as opposed to starting from, you know, the original position ... it's quite a challenge to make that change."

Reporting by Michael S. Derby; editing by Paul Simao

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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Subsidence and trees - how to avoid that sinking feeling - Aviva plc

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The dos and don’ts of planting trees and shrubs at home

Aviva is urging green-fingered residents to take care when planting trees and shrubs near their homes.

According to the insurer, millions of UK residential gardens could be set for a makeover, with 33%* expected to see new trees, hedges or shrubs introduced this year. 

However, as witnessed during the UK heatwave in 2022, changing weather patterns mean that residents are facing hotter, drier summers, potentially increasing the risk of subsidence.

Figures from Aviva’s Building Future Communities research reveal more than a third of UK residents (36%) are concerned about subsidence at their home, while a quarter (26%) are specifically worried that trees near to their buildings may lead to this issue.

With this in mind, Aviva has put together the following guidance to help keen gardeners minimise the risk of subsidence at their homes:

• Choose your tree variety wisely: Information published by the ABI (Association of British Insurers) suggests that certain types of trees – including poplar, willow, elm and oak - are more likely to cause problems than others, due to their long, fine root structures.  According to the National House Building Council, lower water demand trees include birch, elder, hazel and magnolia. Residents may wish to consult an arborist for expert advice, if they are unsure about which varieties to plant.
• Don’t plant trees or large shrubs close to your buildings. Most people will think about their home, but the same applies to garages and outbuildings. Also remember, that a cluster of smaller, individual hedge plants can have a greater impact when grouped together. A suitable distance will depend on the type of subsoil, variety of tree and depth of foundations, so if in any doubt, check with an expert.
• Consider whether shrubs could be moved if they are too close to your property. If a shrub was planted after the home was built and is still relatively small, it may be possible to reposition them elsewhere.
• Maintain your trees by pollarding or thinning their branches. This will reduce the amount of water they require and will therefore allow moisture to remain in the soil.
• Keep a close eye on trees close to your property or garden. If a tree is in the street or on a neighbouring property, it’s still possible to affect your home or outbuildings if positioned close to your structures, so be mindful of any signs of shifting or cracking.
• Do not remove or modify a tree which has a preservation order, unless you have all the appropriate consents.

In addition:

• Watch out for leaky drains: Leaks from drains or water mains can also lead to issues as they can soften soil or even wash it away, causing the land to sink downwards. Sandy, gritty soils are more susceptible to this issue.
• Check your gutters and drainpipes too and make sure they’re well maintained, in case they are leaking.
• Be particularly vigilant if clay soils are common in your region. Subsidence is more likely to occur in areas where clay soils are prevalent, because they are more prone to shrinking during hot weather. Clay soils are more common in southern England, so residents here are warned to be on their guard.

Waseem Malik, Chief Claims Officer for Aviva UK&I General Insurance says:

Nature can be incredibly powerful, and trees and shrubs will go to extreme lengths to find the water they need to survive during hot spells

“The vast majority of homes and gardens can co-exist quite happily without plants causing problems to properties. However, nature can be incredibly powerful, and trees and shrubs will go to extreme lengths to find the water they need to survive during hot spells. In turn, the surrounding ground can become incredibly dry and unstable if plants have removed excessive moisture. In extreme cases, this can lead to subsidence for nearby buildings.

“Prevention is the best cure, so we are encouraging gardeners to think carefully if they intend to start planting this year, to ensure their homes and gardens are climate-ready. Trees and shrubs can be beautiful additions to gardens, but they can grow to such proportions both above and below the surface. This can cause all manner of problems if they are planted too close to structures.

“We’d urge people to do a bit of research before they start making changes to their outdoor spaces, to avoid any issues further down the line.”

People can find out more about subsidence and what to look out for by visiting the Aviva weather hub.

-ENDS-

Sources:

* According to a poll of 2,006 UK residents, including 1,656 people with gardens / outdoor areas at their homes, carried out by Censuswide research on behalf of Aviva in March 2023.

Media Enquiries

Notes to editors:

• We are one of the UK’s leading Insurance, Wealth & Retirement businesses and we operate in the UK, Ireland and Canada. We also have international investments in India, China and Singapore.
• We help our 18.7 million customers make the most out of life, plan for the future, and have the confidence that if things go wrong we’ll be there to put it right.
• We have been taking care of people for more than 325 years, in line with our purpose of being ‘with you today, for a better tomorrow’. In 2022, we paid £23.2 billion in claims and benefits to our customers.
• Aviva is a market leader in sustainability. In 2021, we announced our plan to become Net Zero by 2040, the first major insurance company in the world to do so. This plan means Net Zero carbon emissions from our investments by 2040; setting out a clear pathway to get there with a cut of 25% in the carbon intensity of our investments by 2025 and of 60% by 2030; and Net Zero carbon emissions from our own operations and supply chain by 2030.  Find out more about our climate goals at www.aviva.com/climate-goals and our sustainability ambition and action at www.aviva.com/sustainability
• While we are working towards our sustainability ambitions, we acknowledge that we have relationships with businesses and existing assets that may be associated with significant emissions. More information can be found at www.aviva.com/sustainability/climate/
• Aviva is a Living Wage and Living Hours employer and provides market-leading benefits for our people, including flexible working, paid carers leave and equal parental leave. Find out more at https://www.aviva.com/about-us/our-people/
• As at 31 December 2022, total Group assets under management at Aviva Group were £352 billion and our estimated Solvency II shareholder surplus is £8.7 billion. Our shares are listed on the London Stock Exchange and we are a member of the FTSE 100 index.
• For more details on what we do, our business and how we help our customers, visit www.aviva.com/about-us
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